Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival

Tsimdo

Insignia of Tsimdo
Type	Rebel and political coalition
Effective	September 2026
Parties	Fano AFNM OLA TPLF ONLF ARDUF BPLM GPDM Per Ethiopia: Eritrea Sudan

Tsimdo (Tigrinya: ጽምዶ, romanized: tṣǝmǝdo, lit. 'engagement'), officially the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival, is an Ethiopian rebel military coalition formed in late 2025. Formally declared in September 2026, following earlier statements by Ethiopian authorities, that described the alliance as existing between Eritrea, Sudan, Fano, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The alliance aims to overthrow the federal government of Ethiopia led by Abiy Ahmed.

Creation

Prelude

Tsimdo first came into public oversight when it was discussed in an open letter by Ethiopian foreign minister Gedion Timothewos to UN Secretary-General António Guterres dated 2 October 2025. In the letter, Timothewos accused the TPLF and the Eritrean government of organizing and augmenting a rebel alliance known as Tsimdo and actively supported a Fano offensive during the Fano insurgency.

According to Africa Intelligence, in May 2026, a public political meeting held under the banner of "Tsimdo" took place in Port Sudan, among those who attended were Sudanese army officers, Eritrean government officials and several Ethiopian opposition figures. Eritrean-backed media described the event as a "grassroots initiative" aimed at promoting peaceful coexistence and conflict resolution between peoples in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan.

In a statement on 5 June 2026, the Ethiopian government accused the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and Fano of attempting to disrupt the 2026 Ethiopian general election and destabilize the country with the help of foreign backers. The next day, Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) Field Marshal Berhanu Jula delivered a speech at the graduation of members of the security forces, during which he referred to Tsimdo as a "combined convergence" of Ethiopia's "historical enemies", he also accused "actors from Cairo" of being involved.

In July 2026, neither the Eritrean government nor the TPLF had publicly confirmed the existence of any formal alliance.

Official declaration

The alliance was formally announced on 20 September 2026, as the "Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival". The alliance was announced to include seven members: the TPLF, OLA, ONLF, Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), Benishangul People's Liberation Movement (BPLM), Gumuz People's Democratic Movement (GPDM), and an Afar group. Addis Standard stated on 20 September that the ethnic Afar contingent of coalition is the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front (ANURF), while Al Jazeera English stated on 23 September that the Afar group is the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF).

Military actions

This section is an excerpt from 2026 Ethiopian offensive.[edit]

On 23 September 2026, the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of various Ethiopian rebel and insurgent groups, launched a large-scale military offensive against the Federal Government of Ethiopia in Tigray, Afar and Amhara.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) claimed that it launched a "defensive war" against the federal government of Ethiopia. The offensive marks the largest escalation in fighting since the Tigray war (2020–2022), which killed an estimated 600,000 people.

Criticism

Further information: Democratic backsliding in Ethiopia

Some critics argued that that the Ethiopian government's heavy-handed response to armed opposition groups and political dissent was less a reflection of genuine security concerns and more a desperate attempt to justify its continued grip on power. By framing internal challenges as existential threats, the regime sought to absolve itself of accountability and mask its failures in governance. Some critics argued that the Ethiopian government's response to armed opposition groups and political dissent occurred alongside broader concerns over democratic backsliding.

This narrative of a conspiracy by enemies thereby provides a justification for increasingly authoritarian measures. Critics cited restrictions on political competition, insecurity during the 2026 Ethiopian general election, the exclusion of Tigray from voting, and increased reliance on security measures as factors contributing to concerns over political centralization and democratic governance. Some observers linked allegations surrounding groups such as Tsimdo to broader debates over the government's framing of armed opposition groups and foreign actors as security threats. Critics of the election process raised concerns over the absence of major opposition participation, insecurity in parts of the country, and limited electoral competition, which they argued affected the inclusiveness and legitimacy of the vote. Ethiopia's regional policies also drew criticism over tensions with Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia related to security, border disputes and access to the Red Sea.

Analysts predicted that renewed confrontation could undermine the regional diplomacy associated with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's early reform period following the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize and the Ethiopia–Eritrea peace agreement.