Talk:Economy of Turkey

Any point in having long-term forecast made before Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Even if the OECD made forecast on last day of Feb they would not have had enough time to take account of it.

So unless anyone has a newer source I suggest we delete the section as useless because obviously the Turkish economy was greatly affected - not sure exactly how though. Chidgk1 (talk) 09:59, 14 September 2024 (UTC)

I suggest waiting for the next forecast rather than removing the information. We could add a note of when the forecast was made, stating whether it was before, after, or near the "effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine". If we do end up removing anything, I think the forecasts from the IMF should also be removed, keeping all the other data.

Keep in mind it's also not for us to say whether the growth rate would exceed 3% or not if there is a war. A war economy can result in temporarily higher GDP growth.

ETA: I think this is the same data here but newer. Komonzia (talk) 01:18, 16 September 2024 (UTC)

Ridiculous 2024 inflation percent in infobox

49.38% in 2024 is daft - how could anyone guess what the inflation will be this year to an accuracy of 4 significant figures? Chidgk1 (talk) 07:00, 8 October 2024 (UTC)

i added September Shadow4dark (talk) 20:33, 8 October 2024 (UTC)

@Shadow4dark Oh I see so it is the 12 months to September. But still 4 sig. fig. is unbelievable don’t you think? Chidgk1 (talk) 07:04, 9 October 2024 (UTC)

Ofcourse not but these edits are added by random ip users. They also tried to delete the 2023 numbers without reason. Shadow4dark (talk) 07:43, 9 October 2024 (UTC)

I have deleted 2024 and rounded 2023 to 2 significant figures Chidgk1 (talk) 08:38, 9 October 2024 (UTC)

It's WP:OR to say December 2023 figure is the 2023 figure. There is difference between year-end (December) annual inflation and average annual inflation in 2023. Bogazicili (talk) 18:25, 9 October 2024 (UTC)

I think I will give up on this as we are not a newspaper. If I remember right experts have been arguing about the basket of purchases for a while now. Apparently Turkstat has not published a detailed price list since 2022 https://bianet.org/haber/turkeys-inflation-exceeds-expectations-in-september-300365 It would be better to have a sensible estimate for 2023 than an inaccurate estimate every month. After all the economists must have figured out 2023 to the nearest 10% or so by now I guess - or maybe not! Chidgk1 (talk) 06:51, 10 October 2024 (UTC)

Fake data

The data for 2026 gdp, ppp numbers are not true. The IMF has not released any new data that shows Turkey's GDP as 1.710T US$. ~2026-29317-6 (talk) 14:42, 14 January 2026 (UTC)

by 20 january 2026 You can look at that up real growth rate has been risen up to 4.2%. we do calculate expected nominal gdp according to this calculation "(1+Nominal)=(1+Real)×(1+Inflation)" IMF also projects inflation for 2026 around ~24.7% (in October forecast; other reports suggest ~22.8% — but let’s use ~24.7% for the most recent widely cited point). NominalGDP2026​≈1.5×1.299=1.9485Trillion so yes Turkey’s expected 2026 nominal GDP ≈ $1.95 trillion USD. It's not wrong It's not lie It's expected by economists and IMF itself. Learn economy before try to fix things on this page ffs. ~2026-79733-2 (talk) 12:19, 5 February 2026 (UTC)

I have looked that imf's page and yes shows real gdp groth rate as 4.2% by 19th january. as it shows expected 2026 nominal gdp as nearly 2 trillon USD. Thank you for sources we will look that up and change the page according to real infos and we will do best to prevent vandalism on that. Gajlsi (talk) 12:24, 5 February 2026 (UTC)

I tried and restored some edits back to 2025 data. Recently this page is vandalised by anonymous users. Shadow4dark (talk) 13:17, 5 February 2026 (UTC)

I saw these anonymus users are attacking to the page through reddit r/turkey from this post. Gajlsi (talk) 13:53, 5 February 2026 (UTC)

Inflation and growth

In the context of a discussion about whether growth in the Russian economy is good or not @Swoonfed wrote some things on my user talk page which are probably better discussed here in the hope that those more knowledgeable on the subject than me can illuminate. Amongst other things Swoonfed wrote about the Turkish economy:

“inflation was over 50% as of January 2026. Now, you do understand this type of double digit inflation inflates the nominal (USD) GDP significantly and makes it appear much more larger than the real GDP? So in that sense we're also not sure if the growth is "good" or not for Turkey as well.”

and

“Talking about dynamics, this article claims "The housing problem, although not special to Türkiye, has emerged as another critical pressure point. Home ownership, once a cornerstone of middle-class security, has become unattainable for many salaried workers. Rent consuming more than a third of household income has pushed millions into what analysts describe as housing poverty." alongside claims of decreased wages and a shrinking middle class amid a historic apparent growth in nominal GDP due to out-of-world inflation. But we're still sticking to only IMF in the case of Turkey?”

——- Chidgk1 (talk) 16:25, 17 February 2026 (UTC)

No I still don’t understand why “double digit inflation inflates the nominal (USD) GDP significantly” because won’t that depend on whether the lira depreciates at a faster rate than inflation or not? Chidgk1 (talk) 16:28, 17 February 2026 (UTC)

The consensus about inflation seems to be that the rate we have here is bad and I understand and agree with that. But I don’t know whether it is possible to get down to a stable long term rate of inflation (say 3% which I guess would be good) without risking a recession. So even if GDP growth is good in itself IF (is it?) it is causing bad inflation does the badness of the inflation outweigh the goodness of the growth? Chidgk1 (talk) 16:40, 17 February 2026 (UTC)

Re IMF I am not going to discuss further as it was already discussed in earlier talk page sections above Chidgk1 (talk) 16:50, 17 February 2026 (UTC)

I just read the linked article and our infobox Gini coefficient upward red arrow seems to accord with that and is therefore correct I think Chidgk1 (talk) 16:54, 17 February 2026 (UTC)

Just giving my two cents here since you tagged me. Turkey has one of the highest inflation rates in the world. You actually asked a good question, whether "the ills of inflation outweighs of the positives related to growth"

Turkey's nominal GDP in 2020 was $730 billion, as of 2025, its $1.57 trillion, according to IMF. No upper middle income country, as far as I know, has ever seen that kind of sudden growth (except maybe China in the 2000s), going from a country in a looming recession for almost a decade to suddenly experiencing incredible economic growth. GDP per capita rose from $8,000 to $18,000.

That's the inflation bubble. Real GDP in reality has not grown much since a major Turkish industry (textiles) has recently been "crushed" by other Asian markets like Bangladesh and of course China, per Deutsche Welle. On the other hand, its domestic industrial output is waning, as a "pro-government" business group has claimed the following: A business group close to the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has issued a rare public warning about the direction of the economy, saying Turkey could “lose its industry” unless structural problems, high borrowing costs and persistent inflation are addressed.

Turkey's economic lifeline, its manufacturing industry is in a downturn as inflation has severely damaged it by driving up input costs, per Reuters feb 2026

This article claims A growing group of young people appears to have become disengaged from any economic participation, as an estimated one in four are neither in education, employment nor training.

Despite a recent minimum wage hike, due to the astronomical inflation, its still below the nationwide hunger-line per this article

I can go on further but I think inflation is definitely choking Turkish living standards and the economy overall. Consumer prices keep on going up monthly. So I'm not sure Turkey is a healthy economy with proper economic growth. Rather the currency and prices being constantly inflated shows a larger nominal GDP rather than an actual industrial growth.

But I think the point of our argument on your talk page was that we're simply referring to IMF nominal growth statistics instead of a doing a deep-dive on the real picture as every other article on Wikipedia does anyway. I'm not an economist, so I don't have much of a clue about the real situation besides reading about key developments in major economic regions. Swoonfed ^(Ping) 20:49, 17 February 2026 (UTC)

2020 is a strange year to start from as it was not a typical year! And where are figures for real GDP in Turkey? If any economist is reading this please help Chidgk1 (talk) 16:51, 19 February 2026 (UTC)

Yes, if only the Turkish economy didn't stagnate from 2013–2020 would starting from 2020 be an odd decision. Swoonfed ^(Ping) 10:30, 20 February 2026 (UTC)

@Shadow4dark: We are only in March - I can't believe anyone can forecast this year's inflation to 4 significant figures!Chidgk1 (talk) 10:34, 3 March 2026 (UTC)

We updating this every months. Shadow4dark (talk) 10:42, 3 March 2026 (UTC)

@Shadow4dark Suggest you round to 2 sig. fig as no way is it accurate to 4 sig. fig. See for example https://www.paturkey.com/news/2026/inflation-divide-tuik-and-enag-reveal-massive-gap-in-february-data-28374/ Chidgk1 (talk) 15:21, 3 March 2026 (UTC)

enag doesn't publish its methodology, it's not a trustworthy source. they also don't have any data archives. i suggest using webtufe as a source as it has clear methodology and it's more trustworthy. ~2026-17431-27 (talk) 15:42, 20 March 2026 (UTC)

Can you bring reliable source which supports your claim? Shadow4dark (talk) 17:06, 20 March 2026 (UTC)

Can you bring reliable source which support's ENAG's claims? Or ENAG's methodology? It's a bunch of academics who can't provide any real methodology simply because they make up numbers. They claim Turkey's real GDP is 850B$, and that alone is enough to show that they are not trustworthy. https://www.ekonomigazetesi.com/kose-yazisi/enaga-gore-milli-gelirimiz-850-milyar-dolar-68818 ~2026-17431-27 (talk) 18:12, 21 March 2026 (UTC)

See this official numbers are also disputed https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/04/turkey-hit-with-soaring-prices-as-inflation-reaches-24-year-high-erdogan Shadow4dark (talk) 21:16, 21 March 2026 (UTC)

They are disputed, but that doesn't mean ENAG is a legitimate source. Webtufe is a much better alternative with a clear methodology. ~2026-18651-70 (talk) 17:27, 25 March 2026 (UTC)

They are transparent see and they are independent academics who are considered reliable. Your last comments sounds WP:IDONTLIKETHEM if you can't come with more reliable source without government ties who disputes them i go add this back. Shadow4dark (talk) 05:36, 26 March 2026 (UTC)

ndpependent academics who are considered reliable sources per Wikipedia. Shadow4dark (talk) 05:35, 26 March 2026 (UTC)

We are not a newspaper or a Bloomberg terminal - can’t you just put what it was in calendar year 2025? Chidgk1 (talk) 15:26, 3 March 2026 (UTC)

I added now both numbers feel free to adjust. I just updated now as we all do as they release new numbers we updating this automatically. Shadow4dark (talk) 15:39, 3 March 2026 (UTC)

What’s the point of guessing 2026 inflation when the oil price is so volatile? See pages 16 and 17 of https://tepav.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/upload/files/1773726063989-0.The_strait_of_Hormuz_crisis_Global_supply_chain_risks_and_economic_implications_for_Turkiye.pdf which says "From Türkiye’s perspective, the Hormuz-linked instability creates a multi-dimensional economic strain." Put 2025 inflation in the infobox - that might be a somewhat more accurate number. Chidgk1 (talk) 08:41, 12 April 2026 (UTC)

@Damdumdim What’s the point of adding an estimate of 2026 inflation when the oil price is so volatile? Chidgk1 (talk) 17:35, 21 April 2026 (UTC)

We are going through an insecure time, which means everything is fluctuating at the moment, but therefor it is still important to deliver current estimates. Damdumdim (talk) 17:38, 21 April 2026 (UTC)

@Damdumdim I don’t understand your logic Chidgk1 (talk) 18:22, 21 April 2026 (UTC)

Defence industry

The whole section is now a mess as someone added every Turkish tech which could be mentioned on the main page. If this is not fixed i go restore older version. Shadow4dark (talk) 11:20, 19 April 2026 (UTC)

@Shadow4dark Or you could just excerpt from the main article Chidgk1 (talk) 11:23, 19 April 2026 (UTC)

Inflation and rates

Over the past few months, I’ve been focusing on inflation in Turkey. To keep things simple and consistent, I decided to stick only with the official figures from TÜİK and leave out other estimates, since I find it to be a more reliable source. On top of that, I followed the same approach used for Germany, France, and the UK for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025. Looking at these side by side makes it easier to see how the Turkish economy compares and where there are similarities. I chose these three countries because their inflation patterns are quite similar. Damdumdim (talk) 17:44, 21 April 2026 (UTC)

@Damdumdim What makes you think TUİK figures are more reliable than ENAG figures? Chidgk1 (talk) 18:23, 21 April 2026 (UTC)

The inflation of Türkiye is closer to 30,8% than to 50%. There are several sources that supports my statement. ~2026-24644-45 (talk) 19:42, 21 April 2026 (UTC)

See above discussions and links, TÜİK is not reliable. You had to discuss this before your deletion Shadow4dark (talk) 18:59, 21 April 2026 (UTC)

@Damdumdim Perhaps you would like to draft a section on inflation as it seems to be very important for the economy so presumably deserves a section? Chidgk1 (talk) 06:39, 22 April 2026 (UTC)

EU in infobox

Why should this be here as similar pages does not have it just makes it more bloated and unnecessary. Shadow4dark (talk) 17:36, 24 April 2026 (UTC)

@Shadow4dark Because the European Union Customs Union is very important for trade. No objection if you trim some other trade organisations from the infobox though Chidgk1 (talk) 11:53, 25 April 2026 (UTC)

I agree with this but is this not something different? [] Shadow4dark (talk) 12:53, 25 April 2026 (UTC)

Oh I misunderstood what you were talking about Chidgk1 (talk) 12:58, 25 April 2026 (UTC)

Unemployment rates can be updated

The unemployment rate is outdated. Recent statistics can be found here

https://veriportali.tuik.gov.tr/tr/press/57992 Utkutibet (talk) 08:29, 18 May 2026 (UTC)

@Utkutibet Feel free to improve the article Chidgk1 (talk) 13:22, 26 July 2026 (UTC)