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Next Italian general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Next Italian general election
← 2022
No later than 22 December 2027
All 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (C)
201 seats needed for a majority
All 200 elective seats in the Senate of the Republic (S)
101 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Giorgia Meloni Elly Schlein Matteo Salvini
Party Brothers of Italy Democratic Party Lega
Alliance Centre-right Centre-left Centre-right
Leader since 8 March 2014 12 March 2023 15 December 2013
Leader's seat L'Aquila (C) Veneto 2 (C) Apulia (S)
Current seats 116 (C) · 63 (S) 71 (C) · 36 (S) 57 (C) · 29 (S)
 
Leader Giuseppe Conte Antonio Tajani Matteo Renzi
Party Five Star Movement Forza Italia Italia Viva
Alliance Centre-left[nb 1] Centre-right Centre-left
Leader since 6 August 2021 15 July 2023 23 December 2022
Leader's seat Lombardy 1 (C) Velletri (C) Campania (S)
Current seats 48 (C) · 26 (S) 54 (C) · 20 (S) 7 (C) · 8 (S)
 
Leader Angelo Bonelli
Nicola Fratoianni		 Carlo Calenda Roberto Vannacci
Party Greens and Left Action National Future
Alliance Centre-left — —
Leader since 2 July 2022 20 February 2022 6 February 2026
Leader's seat Imola (C)
Tuscany 3 (C)		 Sicily (S) Did not stand
Current seats 10 (C) · 3 (S) 10 (C) · 2 (S) 8 (C) · 0 (S)
Incumbent Prime Minister

Giorgia Meloni
Brothers of Italy


General elections will occur in Italy no later than 22 December 2027.

Background

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In the 2022 Italian general election, the centre-right coalition led by Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy (FdI) won an absolute majority of seats in the Italian Parliament.[1] On 20 October, a few days following the elections of the presidents of the two houses of Parliament (Ignazio La Russa of FdI on 13 October for the Senate of the Republic and Lorenzo Fontana of the Lega on 14 October for the Chamber of Deputies),[2][3] consultations on the formation of a new cabinet officially began.[4]

The Cabinet was announced on 21 October and was officially sworn in on the next day. It was one of the fastest government formations in the history of the Italian Republic.[5] The first Italian cabinet headed by a female prime minister,[6] it was variously described as a shift to the political right,[7] and as the first far-right-led Italian government since World War II.[8][9]

Electoral system

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The Italian electoral law of 2017 still in force assigns seats in both houses of the Italian Parliament using mixed-member majoritarian representation. The 400 deputies are to be elected as follows:[10]

  • 147 in single-member constituencies by plurality (FPTP).
  • 245 in multi-member constituencies by national proportional representation.
  • 8 in multi-member abroad constituencies by constituency proportional representation.

The 200 elective senators are to be elected as follows:[10]

  • 74 in single-member constituencies by plurality (FPTP).
  • 122 in multi-member constituencies by regional proportional representation.
  • 4 in single-member abroad constituencies by plurality (FPTP).

For Italian residents, each house member is to be elected in single ballots, including the constituency candidate and their supporting party lists. In each single-member constituency, the deputy or senator is elected on a plurality basis, while the seats in multi-member constituencies are allocated nationally. In order to be calculated in single-member constituency results, parties need to obtain at least 1% of the national vote and be part of a coalition obtaining at least 10% of the national vote. In order to receive seats in multi-member constituencies, parties need to obtain at least 3% of the national vote. Elects from multi-member constituencies would come from closed lists.[11]

The voting paper, which is a single one for the FPTP and the proportional systems, shows the names of the candidates to single-member constituencies and in close conjunction with them the symbols of the linked lists for the proportional part, each one with a list of the relative candidates.[12] The voter is able to cast their vote in three different ways, among them:[13]

  • Drawing a sign on the symbol of a list. In this case, the vote extends to the candidate in the single-member constituency that is supported by that list.
  • Drawing a sign on the name of the candidate of the single-member constituency and another one on the symbol of one list that supports them; the result is the same as that described above. Under penalty of annulment, the panachage is not allowed, so the voter cannot vote simultaneously for a candidate in the FPTP constituency and for a list which is not linked to them.
  • Drawing a sign only on the name of the candidate for the FPTP constituency, without indicating any list. In this case, the vote is valid for the candidate in the single-member constituency and also automatically extended to the list that supports them; however, if that candidate is connected to several lists, the vote is divided proportionally between them, based on the votes that each one has obtained in that constituency.

Opinion polls

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Graphical summary

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Local regression trend line of poll results from 25 September 2022 to the election day, with each line corresponding to the next general election party lists

Party vote aggregations

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Polling Parties Coalitions
Polling aggregator Ref. Date updated FdI PD M5S Lega FI A IV AVS +E NM FN Others Lead CSX CDX
Cassandra [14] 5 Aug 2026 26.6 21.1 12.7 5.8 7.8 3.0 2.0 6.4 1.3 1.0 7.2 – 5.4 43.6 41.2
PolitPro [15] 31 Jul 2026 27.3 21.3 12.8 6.0 7.8 3.1 2.4 6.4 1.5 1.1 6.1 4.2 6.0 44.3 42.2
YouTrend [16] 30 Jul 2026 26.7 21.2 13.0 5.9 8.0 3.1 2.3 6.4 1.4 1.0 7.1 – 5.5 44.3 41.6
Politico Europe [17] 27 Jul 2026 27.0 21.0 13.0 6.0 8.0 3.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 – 7.0
1.0
1.0 – South calls North
 6.0 43.0 42.0
BiDiMedia [18] 25 Jul 2026 27.5 21.2 12.7 6.0 7.5 3.0 2.4 6.4 1.3 1.1 6.5
2.4
0.9 – Liberal Democratic Party
0.9 – South calls North
0.6 – Ora!
 6.3 44.0 42.1
Europe Elects [19] 15 Jul 2026 27.0 21.0 13.0 6.0 8.0 3.0 2.0 6.0 – – 7.0 – 6.0 42.0 41.0
2022 election [20] 25 Sep 2022 26.0 19.1 15.4 8.8 8.1 7.8[a] 3.6 2.8 0.9 – 4.9 6.9 26.1[b] 43.8

Government approval ratings

[edit]
Local regression trend line of poll results on government approval, with the green line corresponding to approval and the red line corresponding to disapproval.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ↑ The M5S is generally seen as aligned with the centre-left coalition but is formally independent, and does not run joint presidential candidates in some regions.

References

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  1. ↑ Winfield, Nicole (26 September 2022). "How a party of neo-fascist roots won big in Italy". AP News. Associated Press. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
  2. ↑ "Senato, Ignazio La Russa eletto presidente". Sky TG24 (in Italian). 13 October 2022. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  3. ↑ "Il discorso di Lorenzo Fontana nuovo presidente della Camera che elogia il Papa e ringrazia Bossi: 'L'Italia non deve omologarsi'". La Repubblica (in Italian). 14 October 2022. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  4. ↑ "Quirinale, il calendario delle consultazioni per la formazione del nuovo governo. Centrodestra (unito) atteso al Colle venerdì". Il Fatto Quotidiano (in Italian). 19 October 2022. Retrieved 19 October 2022.
  5. ↑ "Tempi di formazione dei governi, da Berlusconi a Conte: i record". Sky TG24 (in Italian). 21 October 2022. Retrieved 28 October 2022.
  6. ↑ Harlan, Chico; Pitrelli, Stefano (21 October 2022). "Meloni sworn in as Italy's first female prime minister". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 22 October 2022.
  7. ↑ Amante, Angelo; Weir, Keith (21 October 2022). "Meloni takes charge as PM as Italy swings to the right". Reuters. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
  8. ↑ "Presidential palace says Giorgia Meloni forms government, giving Italy first far-right-led coalition since World War II". ABC News. Associated Press. 21 October 2022. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
  9. ↑ "Far-right Meloni set to become Italy's first woman PM". France 24. Agence France-Presse. 21 October 2022. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
  10. 1 2 Chughtai, Alia (4 March 2018). "Understanding Italian elections 2018". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 20 November 2022.
  11. ↑ Cavallaro, Matteo; Pregliasco, Lorenzo (15 January 2018). "'Hand-to-hand' combat in Italy's election". Politico. Retrieved 20 November 2022.
  12. ↑ "Elezioni, come si vota con il Rosatellum, debutta la nuova scheda elettorale". Today (in Italian). 20 October 2017. Retrieved 4 March 2018.
  13. ↑ "Il Rosatellum bis è legge. Ma come funziona" (in Italian). AGI. 23 July 2017. Retrieved 2 November 2022.
  14. ↑ "Media dei sondaggi". Cassandra (in Italian). 26 March 2026. Retrieved 6 August 2026.
  15. ↑ "Italy: Polls and trends for the Italian election 2027". PolitPro. 31 July 2026. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
  16. ↑ "Supermedia AGI/Youtrend: FdI sotto 27%. Fn tallona c.destra" (in Italian). AGI. 30 July 2026. Retrieved 30 July 2026.
  17. ↑ "Poll of polls Italy". Politico Europe. 27 July 2026. Retrieved 27 July 2026.
  18. ↑ "Media dei Sondaggi (Luglio 2026): ecco tutte le variazioni dell'ultimo anno. Chi sale e chi scende?". Sondaggi BiDiMedia (in Italian). 25 July 2026. Retrieved 25 July 2026.
  19. ↑ "Polling average of Italy". Europe Elects. 15 July 2026. Retrieved 15 July 2026.
  20. ↑ "Elezioni Camera 25/09/2022". Eligendo (in Italian). Retrieved 20 December 2024.
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