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Next Basque regional election

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Next Basque regional election
← 2024
No later than 21 May 2028
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament
38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Imanol Pradales Pello Otxandiano Eneko Andueza
Party EAJ/PNV EH Bildu PSE–EE (PSOE)
Leader since 27 January 2024 11 December 2023 30 October 2021
Leader's seat Biscay Álava Biscay
Last election 27 seats, 34.8% 27 seats, 32.1% 12 seats, 14.1%
Current seats 27 27 12
Seats needed Increase 11 Increase 11 Increase 26
 
Leader Javier de Andrés Alba García Amaia Martínez
Party PP Sumar Vox
Leader since 4 November 2023 9 January 2024 3 August 2020
Leader's seat Álava — Álava
Last election 7 seats, 9.2% 1 seat, 3.3% 1 seat, 2.0%
Current seats 7 1 1
Seats needed Increase 31 Increase 37 Increase 37
Incumbent Lehendakari

Imanol Pradales
EAJ/PNV


A regional election will be held in the Basque Country no later than 21 May 2028 to elect the 14th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

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Under the 1979 Statute of Autonomy, the Basque Parliament is the unicameral legislature of the Basque Autonomous Community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a lehendakari.[1] The electoral and procedural rules are supplemented by national law provisions.[2]

Date

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The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication.[3] The previous election was held on 21 April 2024, which means that the chamber's term will expire on 21 April 2028. The election decree shall be published in the BOPV no later than 28 March 2028, setting the latest possible date for election day on 21 May 2028.

The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process.[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a 60-day period from the Parliament's reconvening, the chamber is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[5]

Electoral system

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Voting for the Parliament is based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and with full political rights, provided that they have not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.[6]

The Basque Parliament has 75 seats. All are elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, each of which is assigned a fixed number of 25 seats to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[7] The use of this electoral method may result in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.[8]

The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term will be filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[9]

Current parliament

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The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.[10][11]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group EAJ/PNV 27 27
EH Bildu Parliamentary Group EH Bildu 27 27
Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group PSE–EE (PSOE) 12 12
Basque People's Parliamentary Group PP 7 7
Mixed Group EzAn–IU 1 2
Vox 1

Parties and candidates

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The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[12] Amendments in 2024 required a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[13]

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Vote % Seats
EAJ/PNV
List
 Imanol Pradales Basque nationalism
Christian democracy
Social democracy		 34.8% 27 Yes
EH Bildu
List
 Pello Otxandiano Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism		 32.1% 27 No
PSE–EE
(PSOE)		 Eneko Andueza Social democracy 14.1% 12 Yes
PP
List
 Javier de Andrés Conservatism
Christian democracy		 9.2% 7 No
Sumar Alba García Progressivism
Left-wing populism
Green politics		 3.3% 1 No [14]
Vox
List
 Amaia Martínez Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 2.0% 1 No

Opinion polls

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The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

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The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PNV PSE–EE (PSOE) PP Sumar Podemos Vox Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1] 7–16 Apr 2026 1,411 ? 34.7
27/28		 32.1
25/27		 14.0
12/13		 8.5
6/7		 3.4
1/2		 – 2.7
1/2		 2.6
Ikerfel/GPS[p 2] 23–26 Mar 2026 3,030 59.8 35.3
28		 32.2
27		 14.3
12		 8.7
7		 2.3
0		 2.0
0		 2.9
1		 3.1
Aztiker/EH Bildu[p 3] 24 Dec 2025 2,990 ? ?
27		 ?
28		 ?
11		 ?
7		 – – ?
2		 ?
Ikerfel/GPS[p 4] 11–14 Nov 2025 3,030 60.2 36.2
29		 31.7
27		 13.6
11		 8.4
6		 3.0
1		 1.9
0		 3.2
1		 4.5
Ikerfel/GPS[p 5] 17–20 Jun 2025 3,030 59.3 36.1
28		 31.3
28		 13.9
11		 8.9
7		 2.5
0		 2.0
0		 3.1
1		 4.8
NC Report/La Razón[p 6] 16–31 May 2025 350 ? ?
26		 ?
28		 ?
11		 ?
8		 – ?
1		 ?
1		 ?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1] Feb 2025 ? ? 34.5 32.5 14.1 9.0 – – – 2.0
Ikerfel/GPS[p 7] 28–31 Jan 2025 3,030 58.2 35.3
28		 32.0
27		 14.0
11		 9.2
8		 2.5
0		 2.5
0		 2.0
1		 3.3
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 8] 29 Dec–28 Jan 2025 1,450 ? 34.5
28		 31.9
28		 12.9
10		 9.1
7		 2.9
0		 3.5
2		 1.6
0		 2.6
Ikerfel/GPS[p 9] 5–8 Nov 2024 3,030 60.2 35.2
28		 32.0
27		 14.6
13		 9.1
7		 2.6
0		 2.2
0		 2.0
0		 3.2
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 10] 29 Sep–27 Oct 2024 1,450 ? 34.0
27		 31.8
27		 12.4
10		 9.5
7		 3.4
1		 4.5
3		 1.7
0		 2.2
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 N/a 48.8 22.4
(17)		 26.3
(22)		 26.0
(23)		 11.6
(9)		 3.3
(2)		 3.2
(1)		 2.7
(1)		 0.3
2024 regional election 21 Apr 2024 N/a 60.0 34.8
27		 32.1
27		 14.1
12		 9.2
7		 3.3
1		 2.2
0		 2.0
1		 2.7

Voting preferences

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The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred Lehendakari

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The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become lehendakari.

Notes

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  1. 1 2 Does not include non-resident citizens.
  2. ↑ Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.

References

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Opinion poll sources

  1. 1 2 "El PNV "confiable" se lleva a 11.155 votos socialistas desencantados con Sánchez y tapona el 'sorpasso' de la izquierda 'abertzale' de Otegi". El Mundo (in Spanish). 22 April 2026.
  2. 1 2 "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco: Previsión de voto (abril de 2026)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 13 April 2026.
  3. ↑ "EH Bildu ganaría en la CAV y subiría en Nafarroa, según un sondeo de Aztiker". La Razón (in Spanish). 24 December 2025.
  4. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 1 December 2025.
  5. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Junio 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 27 June 2025.
  6. ↑ "Macroencuesta Nc Report (II): Los socios sufren la corrupción". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 June 2025.
  7. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Febrero 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 7 February 2025.
  8. ↑ "EP Euskadi (31ene): el PNV sube y seguiría como primera fuerza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 January 2025.
  9. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2024)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 15 November 2024.
  10. ↑ "ElectoPanel Euskadi (oct'24): PNV y EH Bildu empatan en escaños, Podemos se come a Sumar". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 October 2024.
  11. 1 2 "Tendencias y demandas municipales y autonómicas. País Vasco (Estudio nº 3503. Marzo 2025)". CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 2025.
  12. ↑ "Sociómetro Vasco 89 (junio de 2026)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 15 June 2026.

Other

  1. ↑ Statute (1979), arts. 25 & 27–28.
  2. ↑ LEPV (1990), final prov. 1.
  3. ↑ Statute (1979), art. 26; LEPV (1990), art. 46.
  4. ↑ LGV (1981), arts. 7 & 50–51.
  5. ↑ LGV (1981), art. 6.
  6. ↑ Statute (1979), art. 26; LEPV (1990), arts. 2–3 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 42).
  7. ↑ Statute (1979), art. 26; LEPV (1990), arts. 9–12.
  8. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Dublin: Trinity College Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  9. ↑ LEPV (1990), arts. 12 & 65 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48).
  10. ↑ Lozano, Carles. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (desde 1980)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2024.
  11. ↑ "Parlamentarios y Órganos. Grupos. Composición. Actual - XIII Legislatura (2024-)" (in Spanish). Basque Parliament. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
  12. ↑ LEPV (1990), art. 53 (suppl. by LOREG (1985), art. 44).
  13. ↑ LOREG (1985), art. 44 bis.
  14. ↑ "Alba García Martín, elegida coordinadora general de Sumar Mugimendua con un 85% de apoyo". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Bilbao. Europa Press. 30 November 2024. Retrieved 19 December 2024.

Bibliography

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