Talk:Peak wheat

Hangon

Hey... slow down on the CSD trigger there. Peak Oil has been a huge story. There is no reason to think that Peak Wheat is not one either. Also, this is should be marked as a stub, not "no content." —Noah 04:21, 7 March 2008 (UTC)

Of course, the existing reference will have to be removed since it is merely a one line entry in a web forum. —Noah 04:47, 7 March 2008 (UTC)

Another equation

this youtube video by Albert A. Bartlett has an equation at 4:36 which differs from others here. its called the "Expiration Time or "T sub E", of a non-renewable resource whose rate of consumption is growing steadily". I think its highly relevant to all of the articles on peak resource use and limits to growth. If anyone else thinks his equation is relevant, can they transcribe it? the math is beyond me, and i cant reconstruct it from the image on screen.Mercurywoodrose (talk) 02:07, 27 October 2011 (UTC)

External links modified

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wrong source

"In 2022 Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have restricted exports and levied tariffs on wheat. Higher prices are not meeting any opposition from desperate buyers[18]"

Source [18] is a 2008 article that cannot possibly be discussing 2022 events.

Also, limited exports due to a war have nothing to do with the kind of hypothetical, more fundamental limits to production that "peak X" is supposed to be about. So this probably should not be in this article at all - even if a correct source is found, it likely should be in 2022-2023 food crises instead, which discusses current issues with these kinds of more immediate causes. Vultur~enwiki (talk) 23:43, 17 June 2023 (UTC)

As no one has defended this incorrectly sourced statement in 7 months, I have removed it from the article. Vultur~enwiki (talk) 03:28, 23 January 2024 (UTC)

this article should probably be completely revised

The article is mostly citing late 90s/early 2000s sources, and the more recent updates on things like Chinese grain production is awkwardly integrated into the older material. The article should be clearer on which predictions were accurate, inaccurate, or too long-term to know yet. The article as it is now gives a mixed impression (the lead implies that "peak wheat" is a plausible thing, but all the more recent updates are presented in a way that suggests in fact the predictions were consistently wrong).

There should either be newer sources, or if in fact no newer sources exist (because the idea has kind of been dropped) that should be clear. Vultur~enwiki (talk) 22:22, 4 June 2024 (UTC)

@Vultur~enwiki I think not notable enough to be a separate article. Suggest you boldly merge it into wheat then boldly shrink it drastically Chidgk1 (talk) 12:43, 8 February 2025 (UTC)

I'm not totally sure about removing the article overall; there are too many sources to make me feel comfortable doing that.

I mean, I think the idea of wheat production following a Hubbert peak curve is wrong; but an idea being wrong doesn't mean it shouldn't have an article if there are enough sources to establish notability.

I think the question is whether it remains notable now, and if so where to draw the line between broad fundamental limits on production following a peak curve (this article) and specific impacts on agriculture in particular areas due to war, melting Himalayan glaciers, or whatever (which should go elsewhere). Vultur~enwiki (talk) 03:16, 9 March 2025 (UTC)

China

I moved this here as out of date and not sure should be in article Chidgk1 (talk) 16:31, 17 August 2025 (UTC)

Yes, most of this article is out of date honestly.

I think Ot needs to be determined whether 'peak wheat' is still a live idea or not. If so, the article needs to be updated; if it's not, the article probably needs to be changed to treat 'peak wheat' as a historical topic (an idea popular in the mid-late 2000s) - or, if there are no good sources treating it that way, maybe just deleted. Vultur~enwiki (talk) 20:31, 27 August 2025 (UTC)

Further information: Peak water

Water is a necessary input for food production. Two billion people face acute water shortage this century as Himalayan glaciers melt. Water shortages in China have helped lower the wheat harvest from its peak of 123 million tons in 1997 to below 100 million tons in recent years, but by 2020 production is back to 134 Mt. Of China's 617 cities, 300 are facing water shortages. In many, these shortfalls can be filled only by diverting water from agriculture. Farmers are unable to compete economically with industry for water in China. China is developing a grain deficit even with the over-pumping of its aquifers. Grain production in China has been said to have peaked in 1998 at 392 million tons, falling below 350 million tons in 2000, 2001, and 2002, although such was 571 million tons in 2011 after eight consecutive years of increase from 2003 to 2011. The annual deficits have been filled by drawing down the country's extensive grain reserves, and by reliance on the world grain market. Some predict that China will soon become the world's largest importer of grain.

Figures from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) contradict many claims that the country's wheat supply is unstable. According to USDA, in 2014 China imported 1.5 million tonnes (MT) of wheat, and had relatively small exports of 1 MT. However, China produced 126 MT of wheat in 2014, according to the same source. For comparison, Egypt was 2014's largest importer, with imports of 10.7 MT. If China had imported more than Egypt, it still would have produced more than 10 times more wheat than it would import, while in fact it produced more than 100 times more.