Tsimdo

Tsimdo

Type	Military alliance
Effective	2024
Parties	Eritrea Sudan Tigray Fano OLA
Languages	Tigrinya Amharic Arabic

Tsimdo (Tigrinya: ጽምዶ, romanized: tṣǝmǝdo, lit. 'engagement'), also known as Tsemdo or Ximdo, is a secret military alliance between Eritrea, Sudan, Tigray and various Ethiopian insurgent groups aimed at overthrowing the government of Abiy Ahmed.

History

Tsimdo first publicly appears in a open letter by Gedion Timothewos to UN Secretary-General António Guterres dated to 2 October 2025. In it, Timothewos accuses the TPLF and the Eritrean government of organizing an alliance known as Tsimdo and actively supporting a Fano offensive.

According to Africa Intelligence, in May 2026, a public political meeting held under the banner of "Tsimdo" took place in Port Sudan, among those who attended were Sudanese army officers, Eritrean government officials and several Ethiopian opposition figures. Eritrean-backed media described the event as a "grassroots initiative" aimed at promoting peaceful coexistence and conflict resolution between peoples in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan.

In a statement on 5 June 2026, the Ethiopian government accused the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and Fano of attempting to disrupt the 2026 Ethiopian general election and destabilize the country with the help of foreign backers. The next day, Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) Field Marshal Berhanu Jula delivered a speech at the graduation of members of the security forces, during which he referred to Tsimdo as a "combined convergence" of Ethiopia's "historical enemies", he also accused "actors from Cairo" of being involved.

Neither the Eritrean government nor the TPLF has publicly confirmed the existence of any formal alliance.

Criticism

Further information: Democratic backsliding in Ethiopia

Some critics have argued that that the Ethiopian government's heavy-handed response to armed opposition groups and political dissent is less a reflection of genuine security concerns and more a desperate attempt to justify its continued grip on power. By framing internal challenges as existential threats, the regime seeks to absolve itself of accountability and mask its failures in governance. Some critics have argued that the Ethiopian government's response to armed opposition groups and political dissent has occurred alongside broader concerns over democratic backsliding.

This narrative of a "secret plot" by enemies thereby provides a justification for increasingly authoritarian measures. Critics cited restrictions on political competition, insecurity during the 2026 Ethiopian general election, the exclusion of Tigray from voting, and increased reliance on security measures as factors contributing to concerns over political centralization and democratic governance. Some observers linked allegations surrounding groups such as Tsimdo to broader debates over the government's framing of armed opposition groups and foreign actors as security threats. Critics of the election process also raised concerns over the absence of major opposition participation, insecurity in parts of the country, and limited electoral competition, which they argued affected the inclusiveness and legitimacy of the vote. Ethiopia's regional policies also drew criticism over tensions with Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia related to security, border disputes and access to the Red Sea.

Analysts have warned that renewed confrontation could undermine the regional diplomacy associated with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's early reform period following the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize and the Ethiopia–Eritrea peace agreement.