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Talk:Cyclone Guba

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Latest comment: 3 months ago by Jason Rees in topic Contradictory death toll
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[edit]

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Contradictory death toll

[edit]

In the lead and the infobox , it is stated that 149 people were killed. However, at the same time, the article states that more than 200 people were killed . Looking at the cited source from the IFRC (dead URLarchived version), they state that, "Final figures suggest that 149 people died in the disaster and the majority of the province’s [the province of Oro] residents (approximately 162,000) were affected." However, the confusion in the article lies in the fact that the death toll of 149 was only in Oro Province (also verified here and here), not the total number of deaths as a result of the cyclone. Looking at the revision history, the figure of 149 total deaths was added into the article in this edit (so for more than 15 years, the article incorrectly stated the final death toll).

Even though that's solved, another problem is that there is no definitive figure that can be given since sources conflict. For example:

  • A 2008 World Meteorological Organization report gives a figure of more than 200 (dead URLarchived version);
  • A September 2014 Inside Story article gives a figure of more than 200 ;
  • A 2015(?) Asian Development Bank document gave a death toll of 170 in Oro Province Milne Bay Province ;
  • A March 2018 Australian Aviation issue gives a figure of at least 170 in Oro Province Milne Bay Province ;
  • A March 2018 World Bank et al. report gave a figure of 149 (although they gave the wrong year, giving 2008 instead of 2007) ;
  • A March 2024 Pacific Community–Pacific Regional Environment Programme report gave a figure of at least 164 (citing a November 2007 UNOCHA report);
  • A May 2025 Nature study gives a figure of more than 150 people ;
  • A February 2026 Papua New Guinea National Research Institute publication also gives a figure of more than 150 people (although the paragraph that includes this information is very similar to the one in the Nature study);

So how do we go about giving the final death toll? Should we go with a similar style like the one done at "Hurricane Otis"? Should we show the figure as "≥149"; "149+"; or "149–200+" (or any other ideas)? Aviationwikiflight (talk) 20:00, 27 April 2026 (UTC)Reply

@Aviationwikiflight: I think the best idea would be to build up this article and see where it takes us as there are almost certainly better sources out there that will talk about Guba's death toll.Jason Rees (talk) 22:44, 27 April 2026 (UTC)Reply