2026 Ethiopian offensive
| 2026 Ethiopian offensive | |||||||||
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| Part of Ethiopian civil conflict (2018–present) | |||||||||
.svg) Military situation prior to the offensive | |||||||||
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| Belligerents | |||||||||
| Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival | |||||||||
| Commanders and leaders | |||||||||
 Debretsion Gebremichael Zemene Kassie[2] |
 Abiy Ahmed Birhanu Jula | ||||||||
| Units involved | |||||||||
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| Casualties and losses | |||||||||
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Fano: Several casualties[3] Per Ethiopia:[4][5] 272 fighters killed 260 wounded |
1 colonel captured Per Fano: 2 colonels captured 10+ military trucks captured[6] 2 military trucks destroyed | ||||||||
On 23 September 2026, the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of various Ethiopian rebel and insurgent groups, launched a large-scale military offensive against the Federal Government of Ethiopia in Tigray, Afar and Amhara.[7]
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) claimed that it launched a "defensive war" against the federal government of Ethiopia.[8][9][10] The offensive marks the largest escalation in fighting since the Tigray war (2020–2022), which killed an estimated 600,000 people.[11]
Background
[edit]Tigray war and Pretoria agreement
[edit]The TPLF was effectively the ruling party of Ethiopia, dominating the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), from 1991–2018. In 2018, Abiy Ahmed was elected leader of the EPDRF and thus became prime minister. The Tigray war took place under Abiy's leadership from November 2020 to November 2022, when Ethiopia and the TPLF signed the Pretoria agreement. The situation remained unstable, with officials from the Amhara Region continuing to occupy Western Tigray and the government launching a series of drone strikes in 2025 while the TPLF amassed troops at the border.[12][13][14]
In May 2025, the TPLF declared the restoration of the pre-war administration and installed the TPLF's chairman Debretsion Gebremichael[10] as Tigray's regional president, creating a rival government to that of the pro-government Interim Regional Administration of Tigray.[15][16][17]
Outbreak of fighting and escalation
[edit]During July 2026 the TPLF declared the Pretoria agreement "effectively dead".[18] On 1 August 2026 a battle lasting several hours broke out between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF near the Sudan border. The incident represented the most serious escalation since the end of the Tigray War in 2022.[18][19]
In the weeks following the fighting, the ENDF carried out numerous airstrikes in Tigray.[20][21] The regional capital of Mekelle was hit by a series of drone strikes in late August, including an attack on 20 August against a civilian compound with no obvious military targets that wounded 13 civilians.[22]
Offensive
[edit]Rebel coalition and Alamata school strikes
[edit]On 20 September 2026, seven Ethiopian rebel groups announced the formation of the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival (EPFAS),[23] a coalition that consists of the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), the TPLF, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front,[a] the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (per Al Jazeera English)[15] or the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front (per Addis Standard),[25] the Benishangul People's Liberation Movement and the Gumuz People's Democratic Movement.[15] The coalition pledges to overthrow the Abiy Ahmed-led government and establish a transitional government.[15]
On 22 September 2026, Ethiopia launched at least five drones and carried out more than 21 airstrikes; two of the drone strikes hit two schools in Alamata, and left at least 14 civilians dead and injured 22 others.[10][15] After the strikes, the TPLF accused the government of launching an "open invasion" and declared the start of a "defensive war" in response.[10]
Timeline
[edit]23 September
[edit]On the morning of 23 September 2026, the TDF launched an offensive and seized the airports of Axum, Shire, and the Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle in Tigray,[7][15][26] causing Ethiopian Airlines to cancel all flights to the region. The TDF also launched offensives on government positions in the nearby regions of Afar and Amhara, including Zata, Dinqa, and Soqota on the Tigray–Amhara border, and Tonsa near the Tigray–Afar border.[7][10] Fighting broke out along the Kobo–Tumuga front between Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) troops and a joint force of the TDF and the AFNM.[7]
The regional government of Afar said that Afari forces would defend themselves from the TDF-led invasion. In neighboring Amhara, government forces were launching strikes using heavy weapons in Lalibela. The firing targeted Fano militants, as they conducted an offensive.[8] According to Washington Examiner, EPFAS alleged that all of its factions carried out attacks in their respective regions, including the OLA.[27][28][better source needed]
24 September
[edit]On 24 September, fighting continued along the Tigray–Afar border and in parts of the Amhara region. In Amhara, clashes were reported in Gazgibela woreda in the Wag Hemra zone, as well as Gidan, Lasta, and Raya Kobo woredas in the North Wello zone. The fighting involved the ENDF, the Tigray Peace Force, Amhara Riot Police, and local militias on one side, and the AFNM and TDF on the other.[29] A new front also opened near the Tekezé River in western Tigray.[29] On the same day, Fano insurgents captured Melese Ashagirea, a Colonel for the Ethiopian Army in Amhara.[30]
Fighting near Lalibela, southwest of Alamata, has caused the ENDF to close the Lalibela airport.[4]
The rebel forces attempted to advance to Sekota, west of Alamata, but the ENDF reportedly repelled the offensive.[4]
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) reported that the ENDF and TDF clashed near Tselimoy, southwest of Shire. The ENDF also conducted airstrikes in the area.[4]
25 September
[edit]On 25 September, Fano insurgents claimed to have captured two ENDF colonels, Meles Ashagrie and deputy commander Edmealem Amare, during fighting in North Wollo, Amhara. According to Fano, the officers and their remaining troops were surrounded while retreating after suffering a defeat. Fano also claimed to have seized 10 Ural military trucks and weapons, including artillery ammunition, while destroying two additional trucks.[31] In Afar, clashes were reported in Yalo, while a drone strike hit Hayelom Tabia, Sheraro, Tigray.[32] At the orders of the TPLF, Safaricom and Ethio Telecom cut off access to phone and internet networks in Tigray.[11]
War crimes
[edit]According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), the ENDF 20 August strike against the Daero area of Mekelle, during the leadup to the September conflict, was "unlawfully indiscriminate" since it had "no evident military targets". HRW's evidence included interviews with three survivors, two medical workers, and two residents, and analysis of photographic, video, and satellite evidence. The 20 August attack was the dropping of a bomb by an aircraft on a residential compound for teachers around 11:00 local time. A 4 m diameter crater resulted from the bombing.[22]
HRW recommended investigation into the 20 August Daero attack as a possible war crime.[22]
Reactions
[edit]
United States: According to Washington Examiner, the United States advised its citizens against traveling to the Tigray and Afar regions and prohibited U.S. government personnel from traveling there.[28][better source needed]
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ↑ "Arab News | Ethiopia's Tigray rebels seize airports, clash with govt forces". arabnews.com. Retrieved 26 September 2026.
- ↑ "Explainer: What Is the "Alliance for Survival," Ethiopia's New Armed Opposition Coalition?". borkena.com. Retrieved 26 September 2026.
- ↑ "Ethiopian Army Colonel Reportedly Captured by Fano Forces". Daily News Egypt. 24 September 2026.
- 1 2 3 4 "Ethiopian Rebels Launch Major Offensive; China Expands Djibouti Base; Deadly JNIM Attacks in Central Mali: Africa File, September 24, 2026". Critical Threats. Retrieved 27 September 2026.
- ↑ "جبهة تيغراي تعلن حربا شاملة ضد الحكومة الإثيوبية والجيش يعلن مقتل المئات" [The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) declares all-out war against the Ethiopian government, and the army announces the deaths of hundreds.]. Al Jazeera. 24 September 2026. Retrieved 24 September 2026.
- ↑ https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/9/26/ethiopias-fano-fighters-claim-capture-of-army-vehicles-and-weapons
- 1 2 3 4 Getachew Birru, Jalale; Raleigh, Clionadh (23 September 2026). "Ethiopia Conflict Alert: The TPLF Move On Critical Sites After Heading a New Alliance. A new phase of the next war?". ACLED/Martin Plaut. Retrieved 23 September 2026.
- 1 2 "Tigrayan leaders say new war with Ethiopian government has begun, as fighting erupts". Reuters. 23 September 2026. Retrieved 23 September 2026.
- ↑ "Tigray forces launch offensive against Ethiopian government". Al Jazeera. Archived from the original on 23 September 2026. Retrieved 23 September 2026.
- 1 2 3 4 5 Bekit, Teklemariam (23 September 2026). "Ethiopia and Tigray accuse each of launching offensives, fuelling fears of new war". BBC. Archived from the original on 23 September 2026. Retrieved 23 September 2026.
- 1 2 Staff, Al Jazeera. "Fighting in northern Ethiopia spurs fears of blackout and blockade". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 25 September 2026.
- ↑ Negash, Gebremichael (10 February 2026). "Redrawing Borders by Force: Western Tigray, unmaking of Ethiopia's federal system". Retrieved 26 September 2026.
- ↑ ""We Will Erase You from This Land": Crimes Against Humanity and Ethnic Cleansing in Ethiopia's Western Tigray Zone". Human Rights Watch. 6 April 2022.
- ↑ "Ethiopia: Fighting resumes in Tigray". dw.com. Archived from the original on 23 September 2026. Retrieved 23 September 2026.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 Rosser, Charles. "Can Ethiopia's seven-group rebel alliance challenge Abiy Ahmed?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 23 September 2026.
- ↑ Harter, Fred (21 March 2025). "Power struggle leads to coup in Tigray as war looms between Ethiopia and Eritrea". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 21 March 2025.
- ↑ "Getachew Reda: Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed to replace Tigray president amid fears of war". BBC. 26 March 2025. Retrieved 31 March 2025.
- 1 2 Ali, Faisal (1 August 2026). "Fighting breaks out in western Tigray as Ethiopia and TPLF trade blame". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 25 September 2026.
- ↑ "Abiy's enemies find common cause". Africa Confidential. 28 August 2026. Retrieved 24 September 2026.
- ↑ "Ethiopia drone strike in north kills three, Tigray sources say". BBC News. 11 August 2026. Retrieved 25 September 2026.
- ↑ "Ethiopia's undeclared drone war". The Economist. 3 September 2026.
- 1 2 3 Ethiopia: Indiscriminate Airstrike in Tigray, Human Rights Watch, 25 September 2026, Wikidata Q141564244, archived from the original on 26 September 2026
- ↑ "AFRICA/ETHIOPIA – New rebel alliance reignites the struggle over the Red Sea". Fides. Agenzia Fides. Retrieved 23 September 2026.
- ↑ "ONLF denies joining Ethiopian opposition alliance against Abiy Ahmed government". Hiiraan Online. 23 September 2026.
- ↑ "Seven Ethiopian armed groups formally announce formation of a coalition". Addis Standard. 20 September 2026. Wikidata Q141547056.
- ↑ "Explainer-Why New War in Ethiopia's Tigray Threatens to Trigger Wider Conflict". Reuters. 23 September 2026 – via U.S. News.
- ↑ "Conflict in Ethiopia". Global Conflict Tracker. 24 September 2026. Retrieved 25 September 2026.
paired with fighting alongside Amhara's Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army, has shattered the 2022 Pretoria peace deal and threatens to draw in the wider Horn of Africa.
- 1 2 Knox, Brady (23 September 2026). "US condemns Ethiopian rebels' 'poor decision' to reignite war". Washington Examiner. Retrieved 23 September 2026.
Four sources speaking with Reuters confirmed fighting had broken out in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara, the centers of unrest in recent years. EPFAS itself claimed that all its members had carried out offensives in their sectors, though this wasn't independently verified.
- 1 2 "Ethiopia Conflict Alert: 24 September | ACLED". acleddata.com. 24 September 2026. Retrieved 25 September 2026.
- ↑ "Ethiopian Army Colonel Reportedly Captured by Fano Forces – DNE Africa". 24 September 2026. Retrieved 24 September 2026.
- ↑ Borkena (25 September 2026). "Fano Rebels Say They Captured Commanders of 61st Division of 803rd Corps". Borkena. Retrieved 25 September 2026.
- ↑ "ACLED ALERTS: Ethiopia Conflict Live | ACLED". acleddata.com. 25 September 2026. Retrieved 26 September 2026.
Notes
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