Axis My India
| Type | Private |
|---|---|
| Industry | Market research, Opinion polling, data analytics |
| Founded | 2013 |
| Founder | Pradeep Gupta |
| Headquarters | Mumbai, Maharashtra, India |
Key people | Pradeep Gupta (Chairman and Managing Director) |
| Services | Election surveys, Exit polls, consumer data intelligence |
| Website | www |
Axis My India is an Indian market research and consulting company specializing in opinion polling, election surveys, and data analytics. It is headquartered in Mumbai and is known for its election-related surveys, particularly in collaboration with media organizations such as the India Today Group.[1]
History
[edit]Axis My India was founded in 2013 by Pradeep Gupta as a data-driven research and consulting firm.[2] The company initially focused on consumer insights and market research before expanding into political and electoral analysis.
It gained national prominence during the 2019 Indian general election, when its exit poll predictions were widely reported to be close to the final results.[3]
Methodology
[edit]Axis My India conducts large-scale, face-to-face surveys across rural and urban India. The company states that it uses booth-level sampling and extensive field networks to improve prediction accuracy.[4]
Election surveys
[edit]2014 general election
[edit]Axis My India began gaining visibility through media collaborations during the 2014 Indian general election.[5]
| Election | Party/Alliance | Predicted seats | Actual seats | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 Indian general election | National Democratic Alliance | 340 ± 15 | 336 | Considered broadly accurate |
| United Progressive Alliance | ~70–90 | 60 | Close range estimate |
2015–2017 state elections
[edit]The company conducted surveys in multiple state elections, contributing to its recognition as a polling agency.[6]
| Election | Party/Alliance | Predicted seats | Actual seats | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Bihar Legislative Assembly election | National Democratic Alliance | 90–110 | 58 | Overestimated NDA |
| Mahagathbandhan | 130–150 | 178 | Underestimated | |
| 2017 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election | Bharatiya Janata Party | 251–279 | 312 | Correct trend, underestimated magnitude |
| 2017 Punjab Legislative Assembly election | Indian National Congress | 62–71 | 77 | Close prediction |
2019 general election
[edit]Axis My India received significant attention for its exit poll projections during the 2019 Indian general election, which were widely considered among the most accurate.[7]
| Election | Party/Alliance | Predicted seats | Actual seats | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Indian general election | National Democratic Alliance | 339–365 | 353 | Highly accurate |
| United Progressive Alliance | 77–108 | 91 | Within range | |
| Others | 69–95 | 99 | Slight deviation |
2019–2023 state elections
[edit]The firm continued conducting exit polls for major state elections including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Gujarat, with varying levels of accuracy.[8]
| Election | Party/Alliance | Predicted seats | Actual seats | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election | Bharatiya Janata Party | 288–326 | 273 | Slight overestimation |
| Samajwadi Party | 71–101 | 125 | Underestimated opposition | |
| 2022 Punjab Legislative Assembly election | Aam Aadmi Party | 76–90 | 92 | Very close prediction |
| 2022 Gujarat Legislative Assembly election | Bharatiya Janata Party | 129–151 | 156 | Underestimated scale of victory |
| 2023 Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly election | Bharatiya Janata Party | 140–162 | 163 | Very accurate |
| 2023 Rajasthan Legislative Assembly election | Indian National Congress | 86–106 | 69 | Incorrect winner prediction |
2024 general election
[edit]During the 2024 Indian general election, Axis My India’s exit poll projections received widespread attention but were also debated after differences with final results.[9]
| Election | Party/Alliance | Predicted seats | Actual seats | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Indian general election | National Democratic Alliance | 361–401 | 293 | Significant overestimation |
| INDIA bloc | 131–166 | 234 | Underestimated opposition | |
| Others | 8–20 | 16 | Within range |
| Remark | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDF | LDF | NDA | Others | ||
| AMI prediction | 78-90 | 49-62 | 0-3 | 0 | UDF majority |
| Actual result | 102 | 35 | 3 | 0 | Significant UDF majority |
Axis My India's poll was notably the only one predicting that the TVK, a relatively new party in its debut election, would win the most seats rather than the more established Secular Progressive Alliance or AIADMK-led Alliance.[10]
| Remark | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPA | AIADMK+ | TVK | Others | ||
| AMI prediction | 92-110 | 22-32 | 98-120 | 0 | Hung |
| Actual result | 73 | 53 | 108 | 0 | Hung |
| Remark | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | AAP | INC | Others | ||
| AMI prediction[11] | 45-55 | 10-15 | 0-1 | 0-1 | BJP majority |
| Actual result | 48 | 22 | 0 | 0 | BJP majority |
| MY | MVA | VBA | Others | Remark | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | SHS | NCP | Others | INC | SHS(UBT) | NCP(SP) | Others | ||||
| AMI prediction[12] | 98-107 | 53-58 | 25-30 | 2-5 | 28-36 | 26-32 | 26-30 | 2-4 | 0 | 6-12 | MY majority |
| 178-200 | 82-102 | 0 | 6-12 | ||||||||
| Actual result | 132 | 57 | 41 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3 | MY majority |
| 235 | 50 | 0 | 3 | ||||||||
| Polling agency | Lead | Remarks | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | UPA | AAP | AITC+ | Others | |||
| AMI prediction[13] | 14-18 | 15-20 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-4 | 0-6 | Hung |
| Election results | 20 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | NDA majority |
| Polling agency | Lead | Remarks | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | INC | NPP | NPF | Others | |||
| India Today - Axis My India[14] | 33-43 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 0-7 | 25-39 | BJP Majority |
| Election results | 32 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 21 | BJP majority |
| Polling agency | Lead | Remarks | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPA | AAP | SAD+ | NDA | Others | |||
| India today - Axis My India[15] | 19-31 | 76-90 | 7-11 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 55-71 | AAP Majority |
| Election results | 18 | 92 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 74 | AAP Majority |
| Polling agency | Lead | Remarks | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | SP+ | BSP | UPA | Others | |||
| India Today - Axis My India[16] | 288-326 | 71-101 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 187-255 | NDA majority |
| Election results | 273 | 125 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 178 | NDA majority |
| Polling agency | Lead | Remarks | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDA | UPA | AAP | Others | |||
| India Today - Axis My India[17] | 36-46 | 20-30 | 4-9 | 6-26 | BJP Majority | |
| Election results | 47 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 28 | NDA majority |
Criticism and controversies
[edit]Axis My India has faced criticism regarding methodology and prediction accuracy, particularly when forecasts diverged from actual election results.[18]
In 2024, scrutiny increased following discrepancies between projections and outcomes, contributing to broader discussions on transparency and regulation of polling agencies in India.[19]
Other activities
[edit]Apart from election surveys, Axis My India works in consumer data analytics and governance-related initiatives, including citizen feedback platforms.[20]
Clients
[edit]- India Today group[21]
- TAM India[22]
References
[edit]- ↑ "How Axis My India became a key pollster in Indian elections". India Today. 24 May 2019.
- ↑ "Axis My India - Company Profile".
- ↑ "Exit polls get it right again". The Pioneer. 24 May 2019.
- ↑ "About Axis My India".
- ↑ "Pollsters and predictions in 2014 elections". The Hindu.
- ↑ "State elections and exit poll debates". The Indian Express.
- ↑ "Exit polls predict strong NDA victory". India Today.
- ↑ "Exit polls and accuracy debate continues". The Hindu.
- ↑ "Exit polls vs actual results debate in 2024 elections". The Indian Express. June 2024.
- ↑ Chanchal (4 May 2026). "How Pradeep Gupta's Axis My India got it right for actor Vijay in Tamil Nadu". mint. Retrieved 2 June 2026.
- ↑ "ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2025 EXIT POLL - REPORT DELHI - 70 ACs" (PDF). Axis My India. 6 February 2025. Retrieved 17 March 2026.
- ↑ "ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2024 EXIT POLL - REPORT MAHARASHTRA 288 ACs" (PDF). Axis My India. 21 November 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2026.
- ↑ "Goa exit poll results: BJP likely to get 14-18 seats, Congress 15-20 seats, predicts India Today-Axis My India". India Today. 7 March 2022. Archived from the original on 8 March 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2022.
- ↑ Nandy, Sumana (7 March 2022). "India Today - Axis My India Exit Poll predicts BJP win in Manipur with 33-43 seats". India Today. Archived from the original on 8 March 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2022.
- ↑ "India Today - Axis My India Exit Poll: AAP likely to sweep Punjab with 76-90 seats". India Today. 7 March 2022. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
- ↑ "BJP to Retain Power in UP: Times Now-Veto & India Today-Axis My India Exit Polls". TheQuint. 7 March 2022. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
- ↑ "BJP to sweep UP, big win for AAP in Punjab: India Today-Axis My India exit polls". India Today. 7 March 2022. Archived from the original on 9 March 2022. Retrieved 9 March 2022.
- ↑ "Debate over reliability of exit polls in India". The Hindu.
- ↑ "Polling agencies under scanner after 2024 results". Business Standard.
- ↑ "Axis My India plans tech platform for citizen data". Business Standard. 8 August 2021.
- ↑ Bansal, Samarth (23 May 2019). "India Today-Axis My India exit poll gets Lok Sabha result spot on". India Today. Archived from the original on 14 March 2021. Retrieved 9 March 2022.
- ↑ "Axis My India partners with TAM India - Exchange4media". Indian Advertising Media & Marketing News – exchange4media. Archived from the original on 8 October 2017. Retrieved 9 March 2022.