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// Workers AI · dad joke modeWhy did the 46th Canadian federal election go to therapy? It had voting issues.

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46th Canadian federal election
← 2025
On or before October 15, 2029 (2029-10-15)
47th →
343 seats in the House of Commons
172 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since March 9, 2025 September 10, 2022 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Nepean Battle River—Crowfoot Belœil—Chambly
Last election 169 seats, 43.76% 144 seats, 41.31% 22 seats, 6.29%
Current seats 172 139 21
Seats needed Steady Increase 33 N/A[a]
 
Leader Avi Lewis Elizabeth May
(outgoing)[b]
Party New Democratic Green
Leader since March 29, 2026 November 19, 2022
Leader's seat None Saanich—Gulf Islands
Last election 7 seats, 6.29% 1 seat, 1.22%
Current seats 5 1
Seats needed Increase 167 Increase 171
Incumbent prime minister

Mark Carney
Liberal


The 46th Canadian federal election will elect members of the House of Commons to the 46th Canadian Parliament. The Canada Elections Act requires that the election be held no later than October 15, 2029, but it may be called earlier.

The 2025 Canadian federal election resulted in the formation of a minority government led by Mark Carney. Carney would later go on to form a majority government in April 2026 through by-election wins and floor-crossings.

Date of the election

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Under the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, a federal election must be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[5] The previous election was held in 2025, therefore an election is scheduled to take place on October 15, 2029. However, the election may occur before that date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister, either for a snap election or after the government loses a vote on a supply bill (which has not happened since 1979) or a specific motion of no confidence (which has not happened since 2011).

Background

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In the 2025 Canadian federal election, the incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, won a plurality of seats but failed to win enough seats to gain a parliamentary majority, continuing their six-year tenure as a minority government and marking the third consecutive term of a Liberal minority government. Led by Justin Trudeau, the party won a majority government in 2015, after almost ten years of Conservative leadership under Stephen Harper, but later it was reduced to a minority government in the 2019 election and remained as such in 2021.[6]

The Conservative Party continued as the Official Opposition, with party leader Pierre Poilievre losing re-election in his seat of Carleton after nearly 21 years to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy.[7] Damien Kurek, the Conservative member of Parliament–elect for the riding of Battle River—Crowfoot, announced his intentions to resign on May 2, 2025, allowing Poilievre to run in a by-election.[8] Kurek had to wait 30 days after election results were published in the Canada Gazette to resign officially, and plans to run for the Alberta seat again in the next general election.[9] On May 6, Andrew Scheer became the leader of the Official Opposition, the title he had previously held from 2017 to 2020, as Poilievre could not officially hold the title without a seat in Parliament.[10] Poilievre was elected on August 18, returning to the House of Commons.

Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the New Democratic Party, also lost his seat,[c] with the party winning just seven seats, resulting in the loss of the party's official party status for the first time since 1993. It was the worst result in the history of the party, including its predecessor party, the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation. As a result, Singh announced his intention to resign from the leadership of the NDP once an interim leader was chosen.[11] On May 5, Don Davies was chosen by the party's Federal Council as interim leader of the NDP until the next leadership election, which was won by filmmaker and activist Avi Lewis.[12]

Jonathan Pedneault, the co-leader of the Green Party, was not elected to a seat in Parliament, with the party winning just one seat and receiving its lowest share of the popular vote since 2000. As a result, Pedneault announced his resignation as co-leader shortly after the election.[1] On August 19, Elizabeth May announced her intention to resign as party leader.[2]

Incumbents not standing for re-election

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Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Cathay Wagantall[13] Yorkton—Melville Saskatchewan July 28, 2025
  Alexandre Boulerice[14] Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie Quebec April 27, 2026
  Steven Guilbeault[15] Laurier—Sainte-Marie Quebec May 27, 2026

Changes in seats held

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Changes in seats held (2025–present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Battle River—Crowfoot June 17, 2025 Damien Kurek █ Conservative Resigned to provide a seat for Pierre Poilievre August 18, 2025 Pierre Poilievre █ Conservative
Acadie—Annapolis November 4, 2025 Chris d'Entremont █ Conservative Left to join the Liberal Party caucus[16] █ Liberal
Markham—Unionville December 11, 2025 Michael Ma █ Conservative Left to join the Liberal Party caucus[17] █ Liberal
University—Rosedale January 9, 2026 Chrystia Freeland █ Liberal Resigned to become an economic advisor for Ukraine April 13, 2026 Danielle Martin █ Liberal
Scarborough Southwest February 2, 2026 Bill Blair █ Liberal Resigned as a member of Parliament to become the Canadian high commissioner to the United Kingdom April 13, 2026 Doly Begum █ Liberal
Terrebonne February 13, 2026 Tatiana Auguste █ Liberal 2025 election results annulled by the Supreme Court of Canada April 13, 2026 Tatiana Auguste █ Liberal
Edmonton Riverbend February 18, 2026 Matt Jeneroux █ Conservative Left to join the Liberal Party caucus[18] █ Liberal
Nunavut March 10, 2026 Lori Idlout █ New Democratic Left to join the Liberal Party caucus[19] █ Liberal
Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong April 8, 2026 Marilyn Gladu █ Conservative Left to join the Liberal Party caucus[20] █ Liberal
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie April 27, 2026 Alexandre Boulerice █ New Democratic Pending resignation from federal Parliament to run in the 2026 Quebec provincial election for Québec solidaire[21] █ Independent
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton May 28, 2026 Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay █ Bloc Québécois Pending resignation from federal Parliament to run in the 2026 Quebec provincial election for the Parti Québécois[22] █ Independent
North Vancouver—Capilano June 19, 2026 Jonathan Wilkinson █ Liberal Resigned as a member of Parliament to become the Canadian ambassador to the European Union[23][24] August 31, 2026 TBD █ Vacant
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton June 19, 2026 Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay █ Independent Resigned as a member of Parliament to run in the 2026 Quebec provincial election[22][25] TBA TBA █ Vacant
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord July 7, 2026 Richard Martel █ Conservative Resigned as a member of Parliament following appointment to the Senate of Canada[26] August 31, 2026 TBD █ Vacant
Beaches—East York July 7, 2026 Nate Erskine-Smith █ Liberal Resigned[27][28] August 31, 2026 TBD █ Vacant

Timeline

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2025

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2026

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Opinion polls

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Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election (LOESS diagram)

Notes

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  1. ↑ Although parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats), thus rendering it impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  2. ↑ The Green Party has not had a co-leader since April 30, 2025, when Jonathan Pedneault resigned.[1] On August 19, May announced her intention to resign as party leader before the next election.[2] May said she intends to remain leader until a new leader or co-leaders are chosen, and that she wants to remain leader "at least until 2026".[3][4]
  3. ↑ Burnaby South, which Singh represented before the election, was abolished during the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. Singh ran in Burnaby Central, a riding which encompasses much of the same territory.

References

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  1. 1 2 Caruso-Moro, Luca (April 30, 2025). "Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault resigns". CP24. Retrieved April 30, 2025.
  2. 1 2 Major, Darren (August 19, 2025). "Elizabeth May says she won't lead Green Party in next election". CBC News. Retrieved April 4, 2026.
  3. ↑ @ElizabethMay (August 20, 2025). "I hope to receive strong support from our membership in the leadership review, and commit that I will stay on as MP..." (Tweet) – via X (formerly Twitter).
  4. ↑ DeRosa, Katie (August 20, 2025). "Elizabeth May to step down as leader of the federal Green Party — eventually". CBC News. Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  5. ↑ "An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act". LegisINFO. May 3, 2007. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 25, 2024. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  6. ↑ Shamim, Sarah (April 29, 2025). "Canada election results: Who are the key winners and losers?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved May 7, 2025.
  7. ↑ "Liberal Bruce Fanjoy topples Pierre Poilievre in Carleton". CBC. April 29, 2025. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
  8. ↑ Ha, Stephanie (May 2, 2025). "Conservative MP gives up seat for Pierre Poilievre to run in byelection". CTV News. Retrieved May 2, 2025.
  9. ↑ Tunney, Catharine (May 5, 2025). "Conservative Damien Kurek says he'll step aside for Poilievre — but by law he has to wait". CBC News. Retrieved May 6, 2025.
  10. ↑ "Poilievre pledges to listen after election loss, Scheer tapped to represent caucus in interim". CTV News. May 6, 2025. Retrieved May 6, 2025.
  11. ↑ Hunter, Justine (April 29, 2025). "Jagmeet Singh to resign as NDP Leader". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
  12. ↑ Little, Simon (May 5, 2025). "NDP choose Vancouver MP Don Davies as interim leader". Global News. Retrieved May 5, 2025.
  13. ↑ Lee, Cam (July 28, 2025). "Cathay Wagantall serving final term as MP for Yorkton-Melville". northeastNOW. Pattison Media. Retrieved July 28, 2025.
  14. ↑ "Quebec MP Alexandre Boulerice announces he's leaving NDP, will run provincially for Québec Solidaire". CBC News. April 27, 2026. Retrieved April 27, 2026.
  15. ↑ "Guilbeault says Canada 'backsliding' on climate action as he resigns as MP". CBC News. May 27, 2026. Retrieved May 27, 2026.
  16. 1 2 Van Dyk, Spencer; Aiello, Rachel (November 5, 2025). "Nova Scotia MP resigns from Conservative caucus, crosses floor to join Carney Liberals". CTV News. Retrieved November 5, 2025.
  17. 1 2 Ha, Stephanie (December 12, 2025). "MP Michael Ma leaves Conservative caucus to join Liberals". CTV News. Retrieved December 12, 2025.
  18. 1 2 Tunney, Catharine (February 18, 2026). "MP Matt Jeneroux leaves Conservatives to join Liberals, citing 'national unity crisis'". CBC News. Retrieved February 18, 2026.
  19. 1 2 Crowther, Hunter (March 10, 2026). "NDP MP crosses floor to join Liberals, putting Carney two seats shy of majority". CTV News. Retrieved March 11, 2026.
  20. 1 2 Dyk, Spencer Van (April 8, 2026). "Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu crosses the floor to the Liberals". CTVNews. Retrieved April 8, 2026.
  21. 1 2 "Quebec MP Alexandre Boulerice announces he's leaving NDP, will run provincially for Québec Solidaire". CBC News. April 27, 2026. Retrieved April 27, 2026.
  22. 1 2 3 "Bloc MP to resign his seat to run provincially for Parti Québécois this fall". CBC News. May 28, 2026. Retrieved May 28, 2026.
  23. ↑ "Carney names former minister Jonathan Wilkinson as next EU envoy". CBC News. April 30, 2026. Retrieved April 30, 2026.
  24. ↑ "Roles - Hon. Jonathan Wilkinson". ourcommons.ca. Ottawa: House of Commons of Canada. Retrieved June 20, 2026.
  25. ↑ "Roles - Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay". ourcommons.ca. Ottawa: House of Commons of Canada. Retrieved June 20, 2026.
  26. 1 2 "Carney appoints one of his top advisers and a Conservative MP to Senate". CBC News. July 7, 2026. Retrieved July 7, 2026.
  27. ↑ Ferguson, Rob (May 12, 2026). "Nate Erskine-Smith appeals Liberal nomination loss in Scarborough". Toronto Star. Retrieved May 12, 2026.
  28. ↑ "Roles - Hon. Nathaniel Erskine Smith". ourcommons.ca. Ottawa: House of Commons of Canada. Retrieved July 7, 2026.
  29. ↑ "Longtime Liberal MP Chrystia Freeland's resignation takes effect today". CityNews Ottawa. January 9, 2026. Retrieved January 9, 2026.
  30. ↑ Tasker, John Paul (January 31, 2026). "Pierre Poilievre sails through leadership review as Conservatives deliver a strong endorsement". CBC News. Retrieved February 1, 2026.
  31. ↑ Major, Darren (March 29, 2026). "The NDP has a new leader. What does Avi Lewis's arrival mean for the party?". CBC News. Retrieved March 29, 2026.
  32. ↑ Tasker, John Paul (April 13, 2026). "Carney clinches a majority government with 3 Liberal byelection wins". CBC News. Retrieved May 2, 2026.
  33. ↑ Plante, Frédérik (June 25, 2026). "Nate Erskine-Smith rules out bid for provincial Liberal leadership, still considering run for city office". Toronto Star. Retrieved July 8, 2026.
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