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2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
← 2024
November 3, 2026
2028 →
 
Nominee Kelly Ayotte Cinde Warmington
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent governor

Kelly Ayotte
Republican


The 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of the U.S. state of New Hampshire. The primary elections will take place on September 8, 2026.[1] Incumbent Republican governor Kelly Ayotte is running for re-election to a second two-year term in office.

Along with neighboring Vermont, this will be one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election.

Background

New Hampshire has voted Democratic in each presidential race starting in 2004. The state's congressional delegation has been entirely Democratic since 2017. Conversely, Republicans hold a trifecta on the statewide level, with a supermajority in the New Hampshire Senate.[2]

In 2024, Kelly Ayotte won the gubernatorial election by 9.34%.[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Shaun Fife, farmer and candidate for governor in 2024[5]
  • Bob Wayne McClory, welder and candidate for governor in 2024[6]

Declined

Endorsements

Kelly Ayotte
U.S. representatives
Labor unions
Organizations

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) 100,920 91.9
Republican Shaun Fife 4,418 4.0
Republican Bob Wayne McClory 3,890 3.5
Write-in 644 0.6
Total votes 109,872 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Cinde Warmington
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Local officials

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Jon
Kiper		 Cinde
Warmington		 Undecided
April 13, 2026 Kiper switches to run as an Independent[13]
Saint Anselm College[25] March 16–18, 2026 691 (RV) ± 3.7% 13% 40% 47%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cinde Warmington 126,223 96.4
Write-in 4,788 3.6
Total votes 131,011 100.0

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

General election

Post-primary endorsements

Cinde Warmington (D)
Executive branch officials
Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[30] Likely R September 11, 2025
Decision Desk HQ[31] Lean R September 23, 2026
Fox News[32] Likely R July 23, 2026
Inside Elections[33] Solid R August 28, 2025
RealClearPolitics[34] Lean R June 5, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] Likely R September 4, 2025
Silver Bulletin[36] Likely R August 25, 2026

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Kelly
Ayotte (R)		 Cinde
Warmington (D)		 Other/Undecided
[c]		 Margin
270toWin[37] September 14–24, 2026 September 25, 2026 51.0% 38.5% 10.5% Ayotte +12.5%
Race to the WH[38] through September 21, 2026 September 25, 2026 50.2% 38.7% 11.1% Ayotte +11.5%
RealClearPolitics[39] August 17 – September 21, 2026 September 25, 2026 50.3% 38.3% 11.4% Ayotte +12.0%
Silver Bulletin[40] June 18 – September 11, 2026 September 25, 2026 51.7% 36.8% 11.5% Ayotte +14.9%
Average 50.8% 38.1% 11.1% Ayotte +12.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Ayotte (R)		 Cinde
Warmington (D)		 Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena University[41] September 15–22, 2026 613 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 41% >1% 6%
University of New Hampshire[42] September 17–21, 2026 1,418 (LV) ± 2.6% 47% 43% 3%[d] 7%
co/efficient (R)[43] September 9–11, 2026 958 (LV) ± 3.2% 55% 34% 3%[e] 9%
University of New Hampshire[44] August 20–24, 2026 1,878 (LV) ± 2.3% 49% 39% 3%[f] 9%
Saint Anselm College[45] August 17–18, 2026 1,411 (LV) ± 2.6% 49% 38% — 13%
Saint Anselm College[46] June 24–25, 2026 1,614 (RV) ± 2.4% 45% 37% — 18%
University of New Hampshire[47] June 18–23, 2026 2,232 (LV) ± 2.1% 44% 39% 3% 13%
University of New Hampshire[48] April 17–21, 2026 1,117 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 39% 4%[g] 10%
Saint Anselm College[25] March 16–18, 2026 1,491 (RV) ± 2.5% 46% 39% — 15%
Hypothetical polling

Kelly Ayotte vs. Jon Kiper

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Ayotte (R)		 Jon
Kiper (D)		 Other Undecided
April 13, 2026 Kiper switches to run as an Independent[13]
Saint Anselm College[25] March 16–18, 2026 1,491 (RV) ± 2.5% 45% 31% — 24%
yes. every kid. (D)[49] January 28–29, 2026 563 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 37% — 16%
University of New Hampshire[50] January 15–19, 2026 2,053 (LV) ± 2.1% 50% 39% 2%[h] 9%

Kelly Ayotte vs. Deaglan McEachern

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Ayotte (R)		 Deaglan
McEachern (D)		 Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire[50] January 15–19, 2026 2,053 (LV) ± 2.1% 49% 41% 0%[i] 10%

Kelly Ayotte vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[a]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Ayotte (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
co/efficient (R)[51] October 9–13, 2025 1,034 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 40% 17%

Results

2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent)
Democratic Cinde Warmington
Libertarian Stephen Villee
Write-in
Total votes 100.0

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Kiper initially announced his candidacy as an independent, but later chose to enter the Democratic primary. In April 2026, he reversed the decision and announced he would continue to run as an independent.
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ Stephen Villee (L) with 2%; Another candidate with 1%
  5. ↑ Stephen Villee (L) with 3%
  6. ↑ "Write in someone else" with 3%
  7. ↑ "Another candidate" with 4%
  8. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  9. ↑ "Another candidate" with 0%

References

  1. ↑ "2026 State Primary Election Dates". NCSL. May 9, 2025. Retrieved August 5, 2025.
  2. ↑ Cullen, Margie (November 7, 2024). "NH keeps GOP in control of state while voting for Democrats in D.C. Experts explain why". Portsmouth Herald. Archived from the original on November 7, 2024. Retrieved January 17, 2026.
  3. ↑ "New Hampshire Governor". Cook Political Report. January 23, 2025. Retrieved January 17, 2026.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  4. ↑ Skipworth, William (May 18, 2026). "Ayotte's opponents on the campaign trail take aim at her Medicaid record". New Hampshire Bulletin. Retrieved May 20, 2026.
  5. ↑ "NH Secretary of State Filings" (PDF).
  6. ↑ Tracy, Paula (June 13, 2026). "Table Set for Elections This Fall in New Hampshire". InDepthNH.org. Retrieved June 15, 2026.
  7. ↑ Kashinsky, Lisa; Garrity, Kelly; Ward, Myah (October 2, 2025). "Lewandowski weighs bid against Gov. Ayotte amid White House pressure campaign". Politico. Retrieved October 2, 2025.
  8. ↑ Bradley, Jeb (August 19, 2026). "Jeb Bradley: Ayotte delivers results, Warmington offers excuses". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved September 12, 2026.
  9. ↑ "NEPBA Announces Initial Endorsements for the 2026 Election Cycle". New England Police Benevolent Association. June 24, 2026. Retrieved August 23, 2026.
  10. ↑ Sexton, Adam (May 19, 2026). "Ayotte gains support of firefighters union after fighting for retirement benefits". WMUR. Retrieved May 20, 2026.
  11. ↑ "Turning Point Action Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved June 7, 2026.
  12. ↑ Sexton, Adam (February 18, 2026). "News 9 Exclusive: Democrat Cinde Warmington running for New Hampshire governor". WMUR-TV. Retrieved February 18, 2026.
  13. 1 2 3 4 Graham, Michael (April 14, 2026). "Former Dem Kiper Forming Third Party, Staying in Gov's Race". NH Journal. Retrieved April 14, 2026.
  14. ↑ Sexton, Adam (May 25, 2026). "Carleigh Beriont rejects calls to run for governor | CloseUp". WMUR. Retrieved May 25, 2026.
  15. ↑ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (March 2, 2026). "Morning Digest: Missouri candidates start filing for a district that may not exist". The Downballot. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
  16. ↑ Sexton, Adam (February 26, 2026). "Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern decides against running for NH governor". WMUR. Retrieved February 27, 2026.
  17. ↑ Colson, Nicole (September 12, 2025). "On WKBK, Volinsky Urges Tax Reform to Fix N.H. School Funding". My Keene Now. Retrieved September 20, 2025.
  18. ↑ Landrigan, Kevin (January 23, 2026). "State House Dome: Democrats eye candidate for governor with family ties". UnionLeader.com. Retrieved January 25, 2026.
  19. ↑ Porter, Steven [@reporterporter] (February 4, 2026). "Can confirm: Julia Williams tells me she's unable to run for office at this time bc she needs add'l hip surgery in the coming months. Also: Williams said the reporting on her apparent out-of-state residence within the past 7 years had "absolutely no impact" on her decision" (Tweet) – via X (formerly Twitter).
  20. 1 2 3 4 Graham, Michael (May 17, 2026). "Monday Memo: Louisiana's Lesson for Scott Brown". NH Journal. Retrieved August 8, 2026.
  21. ↑ "314 Action Fund Endorses Cinde Warmington for New Hampshire Governor". 314 Action. July 1, 2026. Retrieved August 8, 2026.
  22. ↑ "Meet Our Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 1, 2026.
  23. ↑ "PPNHAF PAC Endorses Cinde Warmington for Governor, and Slate of Candidate who will Protect and Defend Reproductive Health & Rights on the New Hampshire Executive Council". PPNHAF. September 3, 2026. Retrieved September 12, 2026.
  24. ↑ Robinson, Leonard (August 20, 2026). "'Doom and Gloom': Warmington Campaign Struggles With Polls, Cash". New Hampshire Journal. Retrieved August 23, 2026.
  25. 1 2 3 Levesque, Neil; Sisco, Tauna (March 23, 2026). "A Survey of New Hampshire Registered Voters" (PDF). Retrieved March 23, 2026.
  26. ↑ "NH Secretary of State Declarations of Intent" (PDF).
  27. ↑ Brooks, David (August 10, 2026). "Jonathan Kiper doesn't get signatures for governor race, shifts focus to new PAC". Monadnock Ledger-Transcript. Retrieved August 11, 2026.
  28. ↑ "Eric Holder Endorses Cinde Warmington for Governor of New Hampshire". NDRC. September 28, 2026. Retrieved September 28, 2026.
  29. ↑ "EMILYs List Announces Four New Gubernatorial Endorsements, Expanding Its Slate of Democratic Women Governors". emilyslist.org. October 1, 2026. Retrieved October 1, 2026.
  30. ↑ "2026 CPR Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 23, 2025.
  31. ↑ "2026 Governor Forecast". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved September 22, 2026.
  32. ↑ "Fox News Power Rankings: The top races to watch as 36 states choose their next governor". Fox News. Rémy Numa. Retrieved July 24, 2026.
  33. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 7, 2025.
  34. ↑ "2026 Governor Races | RealClearPolitics". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved June 5, 2026.
  35. ↑ "2026 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 1, 2025.
  36. ↑ Silver, Nate (August 20, 2026). "FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast". www.natesilver.net. Retrieved August 20, 2026.
  37. ↑ "2026 Polls: New Hampshire Governor". 270toWin. Retrieved September 12, 2026.
  38. ↑ "2026 Governor Polling". Race to the WH. Retrieved September 2, 2026.
  39. ↑ "2026 New Hampshire Governor - Ayotte vs. Warmington". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved September 2, 2026.
  40. ↑ "FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast". Silver Bulletin. Retrieved September 12, 2026.
  41. ↑ "Cross-Tabs: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in New Hampshire". The New York Times. September 23, 2026. Retrieved September 26, 2026.
  42. ↑ McKinley, Sean P.; Smith, Andrew E.; Azem, Zachary S.; Keirns, Tracy (September 24, 2026). "Pappas Opens Narrow Lead Over Sununu in New Hampshire Senate Race, Race for Governor Tightens". University of New Hampshire. Retrieved September 24, 2026.
  43. ↑ "New Hampshire · U.S. Senate". co/efficient. September 14, 2026. Retrieved September 14, 2026.
  44. ↑ "Ayotte's Approval Improves, Lead Over Warmington Grows in New Hampshire Gubernatorial Race". University of New Hampshire. August 27, 2026. Retrieved August 30, 2026.
  45. ↑ "New Saint Anselm College Poll Finds Republicans Facing Midterm Headwinds as Democratic Lead Widens". Saint Anselm College. August 20, 2026. Retrieved August 20, 2026.
  46. ↑ "Saint Anselm College Survey Center June Poll Finds Democrats Expand Generic Ballot Lead". Saint Anselm College. June 30, 2026. Retrieved June 30, 2026.
  47. ↑ McKinley, Sean P.; Smith, Andrew E.; Azem, Zachary S.; Keirn, Tracy (June 30, 2026). "Races Tighten in New Hampshire for Governor and Senate Island". University of New Hampshire. Retrieved June 30, 2026.
  48. ↑ McKinley, Sean P.; Smith, Andrew E.; Azem, Zachary S.; Keirns, Tracy (April 23, 2026). "NH Senate Race: Sununu Increases GOP Primary Lead, Pappas Leads General Election Matchups". UNH Scholars Repository. Retrieved April 23, 2026.
  49. ↑ "New Hampsh⁠i⁠re vo⁠t⁠ers suppor⁠t⁠ expanded publ⁠i⁠c school access". yes. every kid. February 13, 2026. Retrieved February 14, 2026.
  50. 1 2 McKinley, Sean P.; Smith, Andrew E.; Azem, Zachary S.; Keirns, Tracy (January 21, 2026). "Sununu, Pappas Frontrunners in 2026 NH Senate Race; Ayotte Favored for Re-election as Governor". UNH Scholars Repository. Retrieved January 22, 2026.
  51. ↑ "New Hampshire Senate 2026 General Election". co/efficient. October 13, 2025. Retrieved October 15, 2025.
Official campaign websites
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