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List of predicted asteroid impacts on Earth

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from 2026 RW1)

This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance, which are cataloged by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).[1]

List

[edit]

As of September 2026, all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 10 m (33 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors.

Asteroid
designation		 Date & time (UTC)
of discovery		 Warning
time		 Estimated size Abs.
mag.		 Date & time (UTC)
of impact		 Location of impact Airburst altitude
Energy		 Method of
impact detection		 Reference
2008 TC32008-10-06 06:39
Mt. Lemmon Survey		20 h 06 min3.8–4.4 m (12–14 ft)30.722008-10-07 02:4520°54′N 31°48′E / 20.9°N 31.8°E / 20.9; 31.8 (2008 TC3)
Nubian Desert in Sudan		50.0 km (31.1 mi)
1 kt		Visual, weather satellite,
meteorite recovery		MPC · JPL · [2]
2014 AA2014-01-01 06:18
Mt. Lemmon Survey		20 h 46 min2–4 m (6.6–13.1 ft)30.952014-01-02 03:0413°06′N 44°12′W / 13.1°N 44.2°W / 13.1; -44.2 (2014 AA)
Central Atlantic Ocean		40.0 km (24.9 mi)
?		InfrasoundMPC · JPL · [3]
2018 LA2018-06-02 08:14
Mt. Lemmon Survey		8 h 30 min2–5 m (6.6–16.4 ft)30.552018-06-02 16:4421°18′S 23°18′E / 21.3°S 23.3°E / -21.3; 23.3 (2018 LA)
Botswana / South Africa border		27.8 km (17.3 mi)
0.3–0.5 kt		Visual, infrasound,
meteorite recovery		MPC · JPL · [4][5][6]
2019 MO2019-06-22 09:49
ATLAS-MLO		11 h 36 min4–9 m (13–30 ft)29.122019-06-22 21:2514°54′N 66°12′W / 14.9°N 66.2°W / 14.9; -66.2 (2019 MO)
Caribbean Sea near Puerto Rico		25.0 km (15.5 mi)
6 kt		Visual, infrasound,
weather satellite & radar		MPC · JPL · [7]
2022 EB52022-03-11 19:24
GINOP-KHK		1 h 58 min1.4–3.2 m (4.6–10.5 ft)31.332022-03-11 21:2270°00′N 9°06′W / 70.0°N 9.1°W / 70.0; -9.1 (2022 EB5)
Jan Mayen, northern Atlantic Ocean		33.3 km (20.7 mi)
4 kt		Visual, infrasoundMPC · JPL · [8][9]
2022 WJ12022-11-19 04:53
Mt. Lemmon Survey		3 h 33 min0.4–0.6 m (1.3–2.0 ft)33.582022-11-19 08:2643°00′N 81°42′W / 43.0°N 81.7°W / 43.0; -81.7 (2022 WJ1)
Ontario, Canada		95.5 km (59.3 mi)
?		Visual, radarMPC · JPL · [10]
2023 CX12023-02-12 20:18
GINOP-KHK		6 h 41 min0.8–1.7 m (2.6–5.6 ft)32.722023-02-13 02:5949°48′N 0°24′E / 49.8°N 0.4°E / 49.8; 0.4 (2023 CX1)
Northwestern France		50.0 km (31.1 mi)
?		Visual, meteorite recoveryMPC · JPL · [11][12]
2024 BX12024-01-20 21:48
GINOP-KHK		2 h 44 min<0.5 m (1.6 ft)32.712024-01-21 00:3252°36′N 12°36′E / 52.6°N 12.6°E / 52.6; 12.6 (2024 BX1)
Berlin, Germany		21.3 km (13.2 mi)
?		Visual, meteorite recoveryMPC · JPL · [13][14]
2024 RW12024-09-04 05:43
Mt. Lemmon Survey		10 h 56 min1–2.5 m (3.3–8.2 ft)32.202024-09-04 16:3918°00′N 122°54′E / 18.0°N 122.9°E / 18.0; 122.9 (2024 RW1)
Pacific Ocean near Luzon, Philippines		25.0 km (15.5 mi)
0.2 kt		VisualMPC · JPL · [15][16]
2024 UQ2024-10-22 09:08
ATLAS-HKO		1 h 46 min0.8–1.6 m (2.6–5.2 ft)32.662024-10-22 10:5430°00′N 136°00′W / 30.0°N 136.0°W / 30.0; -136.0 (2024 UQ)
Eastern Pacific		38.2 km (23.7 mi)
0.15 kt		Weather satelliteMPC · JPL · [17][18]
2024 XA12024-12-03 05:55
Kitt Peak-Bok		10 h 19 min0.7–1.5 m (2.3–4.9 ft)32.952024-12-03 16:1460°54′N 119°30′E / 60.9°N 119.5°E / 60.9; 119.5 (2024 XA1)
Eastern Siberia		50.0 km (31.1 mi)
?		VisualMPC · JPL · [19][20]
2026 JN42026-5-15 10:21
JPL SynTrack Robotic Telescope		3 h 15 min0.6–1.4 m (2.0–4.6 ft)32.952026-5-15 13:369°06′S 137°06′E / 9.1°S 137.1°E / -9.1; 137.1 (2026 JN4)
New Guinea		50.0 km (31.1 mi)
?		Impact unconfirmedMPC · JPL · [21]
2026 RW12026-9-6 8:45
Mt. Lemmon Survey		7 h 22 min0.8–0.9 m (2.6–3.0 ft)33.272026-9-6 16:0713°54′S 116°06′E / 13.9°S 116.1°E / -13.9; 116.1 (2026 RW1)
Indian Ocean		TBAVisualMPC · JPL · [22]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ↑ "Pre-Impact Detections". NASA/JPL CNEOS. Retrieved 1 March 2025.
  2. ↑ M. H. Shaddad; et al. (2010). "The recovery of asteroid 2008 TC3" (PDF). Meteoritics & Planetary Science. 45 (10–11): 1557–1589. Bibcode:2010M&PS...45.1557S. doi:10.1111/j.1945-5100.2010.01116.x. Archived (PDF) from the original on 4 March 2016.
  3. ↑ K. Beatty (2 January 2014). "Small asteroid 2014 AA hits Earth". Sky & Telescope. Retrieved 28 January 2024.
  4. ↑ T. Malik (4 June 2018). "A Tiny Asteroid Just Hit Earth, Sparking a Fireball Over South Africa (Video)". Space.com. Retrieved 28 January 2024.
  5. ↑ T. Gulon (3 July 2018). "Asteroid 2018 LA hit the atmosphere over Botswana on June 2". International Meteor Organization. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  6. ↑ B. King (6 July 2018). "First Fragment of Shattered Asteroid Recovered In Botswana". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  7. ↑ L. Geggel (28 June 2019). "Astronomers Spotted a Car-Size Asteroid Just Hours Before Impact". Space.com. Retrieved 28 January 2024.
  8. ↑ H. Baker (16 March 2022). "Fridge-size asteroid detected just 2 hours before it slammed into Earth". Live Science. Retrieved 28 January 2024.
  9. ↑ K. Antier (13 March 2022). "2022 EB5: 5th predicted Earth impact!". International Meteor Organization. Retrieved 28 January 2024.
  10. ↑ I. J. O'Neill; K. Fox; J. Handal; A. Johnson (22 November 2022). "NASA Program Predicted Impact of Small Asteroid Over Ontario, Canada". jpl.nasa.gov. NASA / JPL. Retrieved 28 January 2024.
  11. ↑ I. J. O'Neill; J. Handal (14 February 2023). "CNEOS Predicts Another Small Asteroid Impact, This One over Northwestern France". cneos.jpl.nasa.gov. NASA / CNEOS. Retrieved 28 January 2024.
  12. ↑ P. Jenniskens; F. Colas (6 March 2023). D. W. Green (ed.). "2023 CX1". Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams. 5230: 1.
  13. ↑ K. Price (23 January 2024). "Scientists discover near-Earth asteroid hours before it exploded over Berlin". Space.com. Retrieved 28 January 2024.
  14. ↑ R. Rea (31 January 2024). "Meteorites from Asteroid 2024 BX1, which just hit Earth, may be super-rare space rocks". Space.com. Retrieved 5 February 2024.
  15. ↑ J. Dinneen; M. Sparkes (4 September 2024). "A small asteroid hit Earth and burned up over the Philippines". New Scientist. Retrieved 5 September 2024.
  16. ↑ B. Tingley (4 September 2024). "Tiny asteroid burns up over Philippines. 'Discovered this morning,' ESA says". Space.com. Retrieved 5 September 2024.
  17. ↑ P. Veres; M. Micheli (22 October 2024). D. W. Green (ed.). "2024 UQ". Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams. 5465: 1.
  18. ↑ B. Tingley (8 November 2024). "An asteroid hit Earth just hours after being detected. It was the 3rd 'imminent impactor' of 2024". Space.com. Retrieved 31 December 2024.
  19. ↑ B. Tingley (3 December 2024). "Tiny asteroid detected hours before hitting Earth to become 4th 'imminent impactor' of 2024". Space.com. Retrieved 31 December 2024.
  20. ↑ V. Sankaran (4 December 2024). "Asteroid on collision course with Russia burns up in spectacular fireball". The Independent. Retrieved 31 December 2024.
  21. ↑ Q. Z. Ye; H. W. Lin; F. J. Masci; et al. (15 May 2026). "2026 JN4". Minor Planet Electronic Circulars. 2026-J143.
  22. ↑ K. K. Whitt (6 September 2026). "Small asteroid impact today over the ocean near Australia". EarthSky. Retrieved 6 September 2026.
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