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Ann Selzer

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Selzer & Co.)

Ann Selzer
Born1956 (age 69–70)
Rochester, Minnesota, U.S.
EducationUniversity of Kansas (BA)
University of Iowa (PhD)
OccupationPollster
Years active1987–2024 (election polling)
Websiteselzerco.com

Jane Ann Selzer (born 1956) is an American political pollster and the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996.[1][2] She was described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gave Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.[2][3]

Her polls of Iowa voters had a reputation for being highly accurate, based on their performance in elections from 2008 through 2020. However, Selzer's polls incorrectly predicted Democratic victories in Iowa for the presidential elections of 2004 and 2024, with the latter underestimating Republican Donald Trump by sixteen points. She announced her retirement from the election polling part of her practice shortly after the 2024 election, announcing that she will focus on future endeavors in other parts of her business.

Early life

[edit]

Selzer was born in Rochester, Minnesota, in 1956, the middle child in a family of five.[4] She was raised in Topeka, Kansas. Selzer attended the University of Kansas, initially as a pre-med student, but eventually lost interest in medicine.[3] She graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in Speech and Dramatics Arts in 1978.[5] She then earned a Ph.D. in Communication Theory and Research from the University of Iowa in 1984.[6]

Career

[edit]

After graduation, Selzer worked for The Des Moines Register. She established her own polling firm, Selzer & Company, in 1996. She worked as the pollster for the Register for many years, and oversaw nearly all of the Register's Iowa Polls from 1987 to 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight. She has also done polling work for numerous other news organizations, including the Detroit Free Press and the Indianapolis Star.[7][3] Recently, Selzer has partnered with Grinnell College as a part of the Grinnell College National Poll program.[8]

Polling methodology

[edit]

Selzer's polls utilize random sampling through random digit dialing in a dual-frame design with both landlines and cell phones. The sampling frame for her political polls of likely caucusgoers typically consist of lists of registered voters.[9][3] Likely voters for relevant elections being polled are determined through self-reported responses on intention to vote or participate in caucuses. Selzer states that she uses minimal weighting in her polling, adjusting for demographic variables such as age, race, and sex with U.S. census data and declining to adjust for variables like recalled voting history.[10][11][3]

Results

[edit]

In the 2004 presidential election, Selzer's polling inaccurately predicted that John Kerry would win Iowa against George W. Bush. Selzer was the only pollster to correctly predict Barack Obama's comfortable victory in the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses,[7] and her poll of the 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa also mirrored the actual result exceptionally closely.[12]

Selzer & Co. conducted their final 2016 presidential poll in Iowa in early November, showing Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by seven percentage points.[13] Most other polls at the time showed a much closer race.[14] Trump won Iowa by 9.4 percentage points. Selzer's final Iowa poll ahead of the 2020 presidential election showed Trump ahead of Joe Biden by seven percentage points, and Republican Senator Joni Ernst ahead of Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by four percentage points.[15] This was the only poll conducted in fall 2020 to show Trump ahead by more than two points, while Ernst's race was considered a toss-up.[16][17] Trump won Iowa by 8.2 percentage points, while Ernst was re-elected by 6.6 points. In a post-election interview with Bloomberg, Selzer suggested that her polls' consistently high performance may be related to making fewer assumptions about the electorate, saying "I assumed nothing. My data told me."[18]

2024 presidential election

[edit]

Prior to the 2024 United States presidential election, Selzer & Co. released their final Iowa poll that had Kamala Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% in the state, markedly different from other polls that showed Trump with a significant lead.[19] The poll was leaked ahead of its embargo, with Governor J. B. Pritzker of Illinois publicly discussing its results at least 45 minutes before its scheduled release.[20] Trump criticized the accuracy of the poll. Selzer responded by saying the poll used the same methodology as in 2016 and 2020, and that, "It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The Des Moines Register and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers."[21]

Contrary to the poll, Trump won Iowa by a 13-point margin; the error of roughly 16 percentage points was by far the largest of any of Selzer's polls.[22] She pledged to review the data to see if she could explain the significant polling error.[23][24][25] FiveThirtyEight hypothesized that Selzer's methodology, which declines to weight for educational attainment and partisan identification, may have led to the divergent result.[26] On November 17, 2024, Selzer announced her retirement from electoral polling, saying she had planned to do so before the 2024 election.[22]

Trump publicly accused her of "possible election fraud" and called for "an investigation" of her.[27] On December 16, Trump said he would sue Selzer and the Des Moines Register, saying their poll "was fraud, and it was election interference."[28] Trump filed the threatened lawsuit against Selzer on December 16, 2024 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Iowa.[29][30][31] On January 7, 2025, the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) announced that it would defend Selzer in the lawsuit, calling the lawsuit "the very definition of a 'SLAPP' suit — a Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation."[32] On February 21, FIRE asked the Court to dismiss the suit, writing "'allegations about polls and news stories [the plaintiffs] dislike have nothing to do with fraud' and that Selzer's polling was protected under the First Amendment.[31] After Iowa passed Anti-SLAPP legislation for federal cases in May, Trump asked the District Court to transfer the case to an Iowa state court in June but was refused. On June 30, Trump dropped the federal lawsuit and immediately refiled it in a state court.[33]

On January 8, 2025, the Center for American Rights, filed a class action lawsuit in Polk County District Court on behalf of West Des Moines resident Dennis Donnelly and other Des Moines Register subscribers. The lawsuit alleges that Selzer and the paper defrauded the readers under Iowa’s Consumer Fraud Act by knowingly publishing inaccurate poll results.[34][35]

Final pre-election Selzer & Company polls

[edit]
ElectionDemocratic
candidate		Poll
D %		Actual
D %		Republican
candidate		Poll
R %		Actual
R %		Poll
margin[a]		Actual
margin[b]		ErrorRef.
1996 IA presidentBill Clinton4650.3Bob Dole3540.0D+11D+10.4D+0.6[36]
1996 IA U.S. SenateTom Harkin4651.8Jim Lightfoot3846.7D+8D+5.1D+2.9[36]
1998 IA governorTom Vilsack4352.3Jim Lightfoot4746.5R+4D+5.8R+9.8[37]
2000 IA presidentAl Gore4448.6George W. Bush4248.3D+2D+0.3D+1.7[37]
2002 IA U.S. SenateTom Harkin5054.2Greg Ganske4143.8D+9D+10.4R+1.4[37]
2002 IA governorTom Vilsack5252.7Doug Gross4044.6D+12D+8.2D+3.8[37]
2004 IA presidentJohn Kerry4849.3George W. Bush4549.9D+3R+0.7D+3.7[37][38]
2004 IN presidentJohn Kerry3739.3George W. Bush5760.0R+20R+20.7D+0.7[37]
2004 IN governorJoseph Kernan4245.5Mitch Daniels4853.2R+6R+7.7D+1.7[37]
2006 IA governorChet Culver5254.1Jim Nussle4344.4D+9D+9.7R+0.7[37]
2006 IA-01 U.S. HouseBruce Braley5655.1Mike Whalen3543.3D+21D+11.9D+9.2[37]
2006 IN-07 U.S. HouseJulia Carson4253.8Eric Dickerson4546.2R+3D+7.5R+10.5[37]
2006 MI U.S. SenateDebbie Stabenow5356.9Mike Bouchard3441.3D+19D+15.7D+3.4[37]
2006 MI governorJennifer Granholm5456.4Dick DeVos4142.3D+13D+14.1R+1.1[37]
2008 IA presidentBarack Obama5454.2John McCain3744.6D+17D+9.6D+7.4[37][38]
2008 IA U.S. SenateTom Harkin5762.7Christopher Reed3137.3D+26D+25.4D+0.6[37]
2008 IN presidentBarack Obama4650.0John McCain4548.9D+1.0D+1.0D+0.0[37]
2008 IN governorJill Long Thompson3640.0Mitch Daniels5457.8R+18R+17.8R+0.2[37]
2008 MI presidentBarack Obama5357.4John McCain3741.0D+16D+16.5R+0.5[37][39]
2008 MI U.S. SenateCarl Levin5362.7Jack Hoogendyk3233.9D+21D+28.8R+7.8[37]
2010 IA U.S. SenateRoxanne Conlin3033.3Chuck Grassley6164.4R+31R+31.1D+0.1[37][40]
2010 IA governorChet Culver3843.3Terry Branstad5052.9R+12R+9.6R+2.4[37][40]
2012 IA presidentBarack Obama4752.2Mitt Romney4246.4D+5D+5.8R+0.8[37][38]
2014 IA U.S. SenateBruce Braley4443.8Joni Ernst5152.2R+7R+8.4D+1.4[37][41]
2014 IA governorJack Hatch3537.3Terry Branstad5959.1R+24R+21.7R+2.3[37][42]
2016 U.S. presidentHillary Clinton4648.5Donald Trump4346.4D+3D+2.1D+0.9[43]
2016 FL presidentHillary Clinton4547.8Donald Trump4649.0R+1R+1.2D+0.2[44]
2016 FL U.S. SenatePatrick Murphy4144.3Marco Rubio5152.0R+10R+7.7R+2.3[37][44]
2016 IA presidentHillary Clinton3942.2Donald Trump4651.8R+7R+9.5D+2.5[37][45]
2016 IA U.S. SenatePatty Judge3335.7Chuck Grassley5660.2R+23R+24.5D+1.5[37][46]
2018 IA governorFred Hubbell4647.5Kim Reynolds4450.3D+2R+2.7D+4.7[37][47]
2020 IA presidentJoe Biden4145.0Donald Trump4853.2R+7R+8.2D+1.2[37][48]
2020 IA U.S. SenateTheresa Greenfield4245.2Joni Ernst4651.8R+4R+6.6D+2.6[37][49]
2022 IA U.S. SenateMichael Franken4143.9Chuck Grassley5356.1R+12R+12.2D+0.2[37][50]
2022 IA governorDeidre DeJear3739.6Kim Reynolds5458.1R+17R+18.5D+1.5[37][51]
2024 IA presidentKamala Harris4742.7Donald Trump4455.9D+3R+13.2D+16.2[52]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ↑ Calculated after rounding
  2. ↑ Calculated after rounding; excludes invalid write-in votes

References

[edit]
  1. ↑ Whitesides, John (June 8, 2019). "Biden Still Leads in 2020 Iowa Poll, Three Others Fight for Second". Reuters. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  2. 1 2 "Grinnell College National Poll Leadership". Grinnell College. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Malone, Clare (January 27, 2016). "Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on January 27, 2016. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  4. ↑ Winkler, Elizabeth (January 4, 2020). "J. Ann Selzer: The Pollster to Follow as Iowa Looms". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved January 4, 2020.
  5. ↑ "Alumni Q&A with J. Ann Selzer, political pollster – KU College Stories". Retrieved February 3, 2020.
  6. ↑ Selzer, J. Ann (1984). The gender gap: Social evolution and social revolution (Ph.D. thesis). University of Iowa.
  7. 1 2 Ball, Molly (November 25, 2011). "Friday Interview: The Polling Guru of the Iowa Caucuses". The Atlantic. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  8. ↑ "Grinnell College National Poll | Grinnell College". www.grinnell.edu. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  9. ↑ "What To Make of the Selzer Poll?". RealClearPolling. November 4, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Data and Methodology". Grinnell.
  11. ↑ "Interview: Ann Selzer stands by sampling method for primary polls". Bleeding Heartland. June 22, 2018.
  12. ↑ Cohn, Nate (January 30, 2016). "Why This Is the Iowa Poll That Everyone Was Waiting For". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  13. ↑ Noble, Jason (November 5, 2016). "Iowa Poll: Trump opens 7-point lead over Clinton". Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  14. ↑ "2016 Presidential forecast summary for Iowa". FiveThirtyEight. June 29, 2016. Archived from the original on July 2, 2016. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  15. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (October 31, 2020). "Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades". Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  16. ↑ Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil (June 28, 2018). "Iowa President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 19, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  17. ↑ Silver, Nate (August 12, 2020). "2020 Senate Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 18, 2020. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  18. ↑ "The Big Question: How Do You Make Polls More Accurate?". Bloomberg.com. November 15, 2020. Retrieved December 19, 2020.
  19. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2024). "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
  20. ↑ Talcott, Shelby (November 10, 2024). "Gannett probes possible leak of bombshell Iowa poll". Semafor.
  21. ↑ Reporter, Jasmine Laws Live News (November 3, 2024). "Ann Selzer Responds to Iowa Poll Backlash". Newsweek. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
  22. 1 2 Reilly, Liam (November 17, 2024). "Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in huge miss". CNN. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  23. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 5, 2024). "Pollster J. Ann Selzer: 'I'll be reviewing data' after Iowa Poll misses big Trump win". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  24. ↑ Samuels, Brett (November 6, 2024). "Donald Trump wins Iowa in 2024 presidential election". The Hill. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  25. ↑ Fink, Jenni (November 6, 2024). "Donald Trump To Win Iowa, Networks Project". Newsweek. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  26. ↑ "2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump". FiveThirtyEight. November 8, 2024. Archived from the original on November 8, 2024.
  27. ↑ Morrison, Dan (November 18, 2024). "Trump demands investigation of pollster who showed Iowa lead for Kamala Harris". USA TODAY.
  28. ↑ Kilgore, Ed (December 16, 2024). "Trump Threatens to Sue Iowa Pollster Who Annoyed Him". Intelligencer. Retrieved December 17, 2024.
  29. ↑ Impelli, Matthew; Jackson, Jon (December 17, 2024). "Donald Trump Sues Iowa Pollster Who Said He Trailed Harris: What We Know". Newsweek. Retrieved December 17, 2024.
  30. ↑ "Trump v. Selzer, et al" (PDF). E-File. Polk County Iowa District Court Filings. Retrieved December 18, 2024.
  31. 1 2 Vazquez, Maegan (February 22, 2025). "Trump's lawsuit barred by the First Amendment, pollster's team argues". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 24, 2025.
  32. ↑ Fields, Ashleigh (January 7, 2025). "Free speech legal group to defend Iowa pollster Selzer in Trump lawsuit". The Hill. Retrieved January 8, 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  33. ↑ "Trump drops lawsuit against Iowa pollster Ann Selzer and Des Moines Register newspaper". NBC. June 30, 2025.
  34. ↑ Opsahl, Robin (January 8, 2025). "Second lawsuit filed against Des Moines Register, Selzer over Iowa Poll • Iowa Capital Dispatch". Iowa Capital Dispatch. Retrieved January 30, 2025.
  35. ↑ Morris, William. "Des Moines Register poll showing Harris leading Trump draws another suit alleging fraud". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 30, 2025.
  36. 1 2 Glover, Mike (November 4, 1996). "Voter turnout key as Iowa races tighten" (PDF). The Daily Iowan. Associated Press.
  37. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 "FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings Raw Polls File". GitHub. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  38. 1 2 3 Smith, Brian (November 2, 2024). "How do past Iowa Poll results compare with presidential election results in Iowa?". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  39. ↑ "Poll: Obama up by 16 points in Michigan". San Diego Union-Tribune. November 2, 2008. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  40. 1 2 "Register poll shows voters split over Supreme Court judges". Ottumwa Courier. Associated Press. November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  41. ↑ Jacobs, Jennifer (November 1, 2014). "Iowa Poll: Ernst takes 7-point lead". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  42. ↑ Noble, Jason (November 1, 2014). "Iowa Poll: Branstad widens lead over Hatch". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  43. ↑ "Bloomberg Politics National Poll". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  44. 1 2 "Bloomberg Politics Florida Poll". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  45. ↑ Noble, Jason (November 5, 2016). "Iowa Poll: Trump opens 7-point lead over Clinton". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  46. ↑ Petroski, William (November 5, 2016). "Iowa Poll: Grassley maintains double-digit lead over Judge". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  47. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 3, 2018). "Just days before election, Iowa Poll shows Fred Hubbell with 2-point lead over Kim Reynolds". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  48. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (October 31, 2020). "Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  49. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (October 31, 2020). "Iowa Poll: Republican Joni Ernst pulls ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in closing days of U.S. Senate race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  50. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne; Gruber-Miller, Stephen (November 5, 2022). "Iowa Poll: Chuck Grassley widens lead over Mike Franken in US Senate race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  51. ↑ Richardson, Ian (November 5, 2022). "Iowa Poll: Gov. Kim Reynolds has a 17-point lead over Deidre DeJear in governor's race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
  52. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2024). "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.

Further reading

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[edit]
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ann_Selzer&oldid=1362562620"