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Potential tropical cyclone

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Potential Tropical Cyclone)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four off the coast of Tamaulipas, Mexico
Example of a potential tropical cyclone during the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season

Potential tropical cyclone is a designation used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins that enables for features of high likelihood of undergoing tropical cyclogenesis to have watches and warnings issued for them. The practice began in 2017.

Operationality

[edit]

The NHC defines a potential tropical cyclone as a disturbance which is not a tropical cyclone but is threatening to cause tropical storm or hurricane conditions to a landmass within 72 hours.[1]

Advisories related to potential tropical cyclones are the same as developed tropical cyclones.[2] The advent of the designation allowed for issuance of tropical cyclone warnings and watches prior to the development of a tropical cyclone.[3] Prior, those watches and warnings could only be issued for fully-formed tropical cyclones.[4]

History

[edit]

The term was introduced for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season with the aim of giving citizens more time to prepare for systems.[5] At this point, disturbances were designated as such with a head time of 48 hours.[4] The first system to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone was Tropical Storm Bret as it was moving towards the Windward Islands.[6]

In 2025, the leading time for designation was extended to 72 hours before expected impact.[2]

Usage

[edit]
System Date designated[a] Area threatened[b] Peak classification (SSHWS) References
Tropical Storm Bret June 18, 2017 Windward Islands Tropical storm [6]
Tropical Storm Cindy June 19, 2017 Louisiana Tropical storm [4][7]
Hurricane Harvey August 17, 2017 Lesser Antilles Category 4 [8][9]
Tropical Storm Lidia August 26, 2017 Baja California Sur Tropical storm [10]
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten August 27, 2017 Carolinas Potential tropical cyclone [11]
Tropical Storm Philippe October 27, 2017 Cuba, The Bahamas Tropical storm [12]
Hurricane Florence August 30, 2018 Cape Verde Category 4 [13][14]
Hurricane Helene September 7, 2018 Cape Verde Category 2 [15][16]
Hurricane Humberto September 12, 2019 The Bahamas Category 3 [17][18]
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E October 16, 2019 South Mexico Potential tropical cyclone [19]
Hurricane Isaias July 28, 2020 Antilles Category 1 [20][21]
Tropical Storm Fred August 9, 2021 Antilles Tropical storm [22]
Hurricane Grace August 13, 2021 Leeward Islands Category 3 [23][24]
Tropical Storm Alex June 2, 2022 Cuba, Florida Tropical storm [25]
Hurricane Bonnie June 27, 2022 Windward Islands Category 3 [26][27]
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four August 19, 2022 Tamaulipas, Texas Potential tropical cyclone [28]
Hurricane Julia October 6, 2022 Colombia Category 1 [29][30]
Hurricane Lisa October 30, 2022 Jamaica, Grand Cayman Category 1 [31][32]
Tropical Storm Max October 7, 2023 South Mexico Tropical storm [33]
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two November 16, 2023 Greater Antilles, Lucayan Archipelago Potential tropical cyclone [34]
Hurricane Francine September 8, 2024 Gulf of Mexico Category 2 [35][36]
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight September 15, 2024 Carolinas Potential tropical cyclone [37]
Hurricane Helene September 23, 2024 Yucatán Peninsula, Cuba Category 4 [38][39]
Tropical Storm Nadine October 18, 2024 Yucatán Peninsula Tropical storm [40]
Hurricane Erick June 16, 2025 South Mexico Category 4 [41][42]
Hurricane Imelda September 26, 2025 The Bahamas Category 1 [43][44]
Tropical Storm Arthur June 16, 2026 Texas, Louisiana Tropical storm [45]
Hurricane Lala August 12, 2026 Hawaii[c] Category 4 [46]
Tropical Storm Edouard August 31, 2026 Texas, Louisiana Tropical storm [47]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ↑ Different from formation date
  2. ↑ This only includes locations that the system was threatening upon designation as a PTC and not places throughout the entire lifespan of the system.
  3. ↑ Neither watches nor warnings issued initially

References

[edit]
  1. ↑ "Glossary of NHC Terms". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on February 16, 2021. Retrieved June 30, 2026.
  2. 1 2 Dolce, Chris; Kaiser, Caitlin (September 26, 2025). "What Is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?". The Weather Channel. Archived from the original on June 30, 2026. Retrieved June 30, 2026.
  3. ↑ Gray, Jennifer (July 18, 2025). "Weather Words: Potential Tropical Cyclone". The Weather Channel. Retrieved July 4, 2026.
  4. 1 2 3 Combs, Felicia (June 21, 2017). "What is a potential tropical cyclone?". WPTV. Retrieved June 30, 2026.
  5. ↑ Clarkson, Brett (April 13, 2017). "The cone map has changed, but the message hasn't". Sun Sentinel. Retrieved June 30, 2026.
  6. 1 2 "NHC Unveils New Product with Potential Tropical Cyclone in Atlantic". Weather Underground. June 18, 2017. Archived from the original on March 19, 2021. Retrieved June 30, 2026.
  7. ↑ Brennan, Michael (June 19, 2017). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  8. ↑ Beven, Jack (August 17, 2017). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1...Corrected". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on May 19, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  9. ↑ Meg, Matthias (July 3, 2026). "Hurricane Harvey". Encyclopaedia Britannica. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  10. ↑ Blake, Eric (August 29, 2017). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on October 14, 2025. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  11. ↑ Brennan, Michael (August 27, 2017). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 1...Corrected". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on March 10, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  12. ↑ Brennan, Michael (October 27, 2017). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on April 10, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  13. ↑ Avila, Lixion (August 30, 2018). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  14. ↑ Stewart, Stacy R.; Berg, Robbie (September 25, 2019). "Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 2, 2019. Retrieved June 7, 2026.
  15. ↑ Brennan, Michael (September 7, 2018). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  16. ↑ Cangialosi, John P. (July 19, 2019). "Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. AL082018. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 25, 2021. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  17. ↑ Avila, Lixion (September 12, 2019). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on September 18, 2019. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  18. ↑ Stewart, Stacy R. (February 19, 2020). "Hurricane Humberto Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. AL092019. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 15, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  19. ↑ Pasch, Richard J. (February 28, 2020). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 18, 2021. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  20. ↑ Brown, Daniel (July 28, 2020). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on June 28, 2021. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  21. ↑ Latto, Andy; Hagen, Andrew; Berg, Robbie (June 11, 2021). "Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. AL092020. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 18, 2021. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  22. ↑ Brown, Daniel; Papin, Philippe (August 9, 2021). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on August 9, 2021. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  23. ↑ Berg, Robbie; Brennan, Michael (August 13, 2021). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1...Corrected". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on August 13, 2021. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  24. ↑ Hanna, Jason; Elamroussi, Aya (August 20, 2021). "Hurricane Grace is now a category 3 storm as it closes in on Mexico". CNN. Archived from the original on December 30, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  25. ↑ Beven, Jack (June 2, 2022). "Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  26. ↑ Pasch, Richard (June 27, 2022). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on June 27, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  27. ↑ Papin, Philippe P. (March 20, 2023). "Hurricane Bonnie Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 8, 2023. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  28. ↑ Cangialosi, John P. (November 1, 2022). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. AL042022. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 2, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  29. ↑ Berg, Robbie (October 6, 2022). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on October 11, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  30. ↑ Cangialosi, John P. (March 13, 2023). "Hurricane Julia Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. AL132022, EP182022. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 16, 2023. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  31. ↑ Papin, Philippe; Cangialosi, John (October 30, 2022). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on October 30, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  32. ↑ Blake, Eric S. (March 14, 2023). "Hurricane Lisa Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. AL152022. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 14, 2023. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  33. ↑ Brown, Daniel (October 7, 2023). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on March 9, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  34. ↑ Hagen, Andrew (February 28, 2024). Tropical Cyclone Report: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two (PDF) (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 29, 2024. Retrieved May 29, 2024.
  35. ↑ Papin, Philippe (September 8, 2025). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on July 10, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  36. ↑ "Hurricane Francine 2024". National Weather Service. Lake Charles, Louisiana. Archived from the original on July 7, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  37. ↑ Pasch, Richard (September 15, 2024). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on July 13, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  38. ↑ Reinhart, Brad (September 23, 2024). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on March 12, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  39. ↑ "Tropical Storm Helene: September 26-27, 2024". National Weather Service. Wilmington, North Carolina. Archived from the original on August 8, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  40. ↑ Hogsett, Wallace; Cangialosi, John (October 18, 2024). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on February 18, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  41. ↑ Bucci, Lisa; Mora, Cassandra; Cano, Will (June 16, 2025). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on July 15, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  42. ↑ Sánchez, Fabiola; Cruz, Luis Alberto (June 19, 2025). "Erick turns rainmaker after hitting Mexico's Pacific coast as a strong hurricane. 1 dead". Associated Press. Archived from the original on July 25, 2025. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  43. ↑ Cangialosi, John (September 26, 2025). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on March 13, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  44. ↑ Reinhart, Brad J. (January 26, 2026). "Hurricane Imelda Tropical Cyclone Report" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. AL092025. Miami, Florida. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 7, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  45. ↑ Blake, Eric (June 16, 2026). "Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Archived from the original on June 18, 2026. Retrieved July 6, 2026.
  46. ↑ Pasch, Richard (August 12, 2026). "Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Advisory Number 1". Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Honolulu, Hawaii. Retrieved August 12, 2026.
  47. ↑ Reinhart, Brad (June 16, 2026). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Miami, Florida. Retrieved August 31, 2026.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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