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// Workers AI · dad joke modeWhy did 2016 Michigan Democratic primary go to therapy? It had a lot of Bernie-ing issues.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

 2012
March 8, 2016 (2016-03-08)
2020 
 DA
MS 
 
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 67 63
Popular vote 598,943 581,775
Percentage 49.68% 48.26%

Sanders:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Clinton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held a second primary in Mississippi, while the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was a massive upset, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.[1]

Clinton lost Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23% in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Forums and debates

[edit]

March 2016 debate in Flint

[edit]

On March 6, 2016 the Democratic Party held a seventh presidential debate at The Whiting at the Flint Cultural Center. Flint, Michigan was chosen as the center of the ongoing Flint water crisis.[2] The debate was hosted by Anderson Cooper and aired on CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. At the end of the debate, Cooper announced a labor union fund had committed $25 million in low-interest loans towards repairing the water system.

March 2016 forum in Detroit

[edit]

The next day, on March 7, 2016, a Town Hall event, was held as the eighth democratic forum. It started at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T., at the Gem Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, and was aired by the Fox News Channel.[3] The forum was moderated by Bret Baier.

Opinion polling

[edit]
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results[4] March 8, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49.7%
Hillary Clinton
48.3%
Others / Uncommitted
2.1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 482

March 7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided
5%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 475

March 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth[7]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

March 3–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 4–5, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
4%
CBS News/YouGov[8]

Margin of error: ± 7.7%
Sample size: 597

March 2–4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
1%
Mitchell/FOX 2[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 610

March 2–3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided
8%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 546

March 1–3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
3%
MSU[11]

Margin of error: ± 6.1%
Sample size: 262

January 25-March 3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 427

March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
6%
MRG[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 218

February 22–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
8%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[14]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 344

February 23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
65%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided
4%
ARG[15]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

February 19–20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
7%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.69%
Sample size: 430

February 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.4
Sample size: 500

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 321

February 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided 15%
IMP/Target Insyght [18]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 2–4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided 8%
Marketing Resource Group[19]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 600

September 9–14, 2015 Hillary Clinton
41%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Joe Biden 22% Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 431

June 25–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
25%
Lincoln Chafee 5% Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Not sure 10%
Suffolk[21]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 212

September 6–10, 2014 Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
17%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Andrew Cuomo 4%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 9%, Refused 1%

Results

[edit]
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 598,943 49.68% 67 0 67
Hillary Clinton 581,775 48.26% 63 10 73
Uncommitted 21,601 1.79% 0 7 7
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 2,363 0.20%
Rocky De La Fuente 870 0.07%
Total 1,205,552 100% 130 17 147
Source: [22]
Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 6 28,860 44,359 73,219 2 4
2 5 26,090 39,834 65,924 2 3
3 5 28,441 45,282 73,723 2 3
4 5 24,928 35,597 60,525 2 3
5 7 48,622 42,755 91,377 4 3
6 5 28,265 39,157 67,422 2 3
7 5 29,186 36,019 65,205 2 3
8 5 35,205 46,969 82,174 2 3
9 6 48,570 50,903 99,473 3 3
10 5 28,314 33,710 62,024 2 3
11 6 39,732 45,054 84,786 3 3
12 7 50,157 58,892 109,049 3 4
13 9 71,235 37,028 108,263 6 3
14 9 88,494 42,608 131,102 6 3
Total 85 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 41 44
PLEO 17 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 8 9
At Large 28 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 14 14
Gr. Total 130 581,775 598,943 1,180,718 63 67
Total vote 1,205,552 48.26% 49.68%
Source: Michigan Department of State Election results (District 13 and 14 Wayne County) partial

Results by county

[edit]
County[23][24] Clinton % Sanders % Others % Totals Turnout (%) Margin (%)
Alcona46348.74%45547.89% 32 3.37% 950 10.29% -0.85%
Alger38437.07%62260.04% 30 2.90% 1,036 14.41% 22.97%
Allegan3,51138.01%5,56960.28% 158 1.71% 9,238 11.33% 22.27%
Alpena1,10244.22%1,34754.05% 43 1.73% 2,492 10.77% 9.83%
Antrim86736.06%1,49162.02% 46 1.91% 2,404 12.04% 25.96%
Arenac59546.12%66351.40% 32 2.48% 1,290 10.74% 5.28%
Baraga27040.30%37155.37% 29 4.33% 670 10.54% 15.07%
Barry1,73635.40%3,07862.77% 90 1.84% 4,904 ~11.04% 27.37%
Bay5,93745.94%6,36349.24% 622 4.81% 12,922 16.37% 3.30%
Benzie85333.48%1,65064.76% 45 1.77% 2,548 17.30% 31.28%
Berrien6,69851.54%5,96845.93% 329 2.53% 12,995 10.40% -5.61%
Branch1,01043.44%1,24653.59% 69 2.97% 2,325 7.50% 10.15%
Calhoun5,23146.36%5,81251.51% 240 2.13% 11,283 11.41% 5.15%
Cass1,65748.37%1,68449.15% 85 2.48% 3,426 ~8.60% 0.78%
Charlevoix1,04436.68%1,73060.79% 72 2.53% 2,846 13.11% 24.11%
Cheboygan1,01042.62%1,31855.61% 42 1.77% 2,370 11.33% 12.99%
Chippewa1,23039.82%1,79358.04% 70 2.27% 3,093 12.87% 18.22%
Clare1,09045.76%1,23952.02% 53 2.23% 2,382 10.33% 6.26%
Clinton3,40242.16%4,49655.72% 171 2.12% 8,069 14.88% 13.56%
Crawford49442.33%63154.07% 42 3.60% 1,167 9.91% 11.74%
Delta1,40943.34%1,70552.45% 137 4.21% 3,251 ~11.22% 9.11%
Dickinson90843.49%1,07551.48% 105 5.03% 2,088 9.58% 7.99%
Eaton5,86643.99%7,12553.43% 344 2.58% 13,335 16.81% 9.44%
Emmet1,36933.91%2,58964.13% 79 1.96% 4,037 14.51% 30.22%
Genesee31,36651.73%28,17146.46% 1,097 1.81% 60,634 18.67% -5.27%
Gladwin98546.29%1,08350.89% 60 2.82% 2,128 ~10.18% 4.60%
Gogebic67844.84%79052.25% 44 2.91% 1,512 11.03% 7.41%
Grand Traverse4,14033.18%8,09164.84% 248 1.99% 12,479 17.43% 31.66%
Gratiot1,18538.87%1,81259.43% 52 1.71% 3,049 11.77% 20.56%
Hillsdale97740.12%1,38056.57% 78 3.20% 2,435 7.54% 16.45%
Houghton1,10934.78%2,03963.94% 41 1.29% 3,189 ~13.18% 29.16%
Huron1,05045.99%1,18451.86% 49 2.15% 2,283 ~9.13% 5.87%
Ingham18,34743.66%22,98654.70% 687 1.63% 42,020 21.61% 11.04%
Ionia1,49133.99%2,81264.11% 83 1.89% 4,386 10.29% 30.12%
Iosco1,07746.08%1,20251.43% 58 2.48% 2,337 11.17% 5.35%
Iron52748.30%54650.05% 18 1.65% 1,091 11.41% 1.75%
Isabella2,03233.18%4,02465.71% 68 1.11% 6,124 14.68% 32.53%
Jackson5,28842.70%6,80454.95% 291 2.35% 12,383 11.28% 12.25%
Kalamazoo12,61137.91%20,16260.61% 492 1.48% 33,265 17.75% 22.70%
Kalkaska59036.53%98761.11% 38 2.35% 1,615 ~11.21% 24.58%
Kent26,03236.85%43,44461.49% 1,173 1.66% 70,649 16.20% 24.64%
Keweenaw12839.75%18858.39% 6 1.86% 322 ~16.93% 18.64%
Lake54850.09%51446.98% 32 2.93% 1,094 ~12.12% -3.11%
Lapeer3,32540.39%4,65056.49% 257 3.12% 8,232 12.58% 16.10%
Leelanau1,45937.67%2,36060.93% 54 1.39% 3,873 19.77% 23.26%
Lenawee3,45543.72%4,25653.85% 192 2.43% 7,903 11.04% 10.13%
Livingston6,70538.12%10,43559.32% 451 2.56% 17,591 12.47% 21.20%
Luce16735.38%29161.65% 14 2.97% 472 11.04% 26.27%
Mackinac50042.77%63354.15% 36 3.08% 1,169 11.92% 11.38%
Macomb47,59948.80%46,24847.42% 3,689 3.78% 97,536 ~15.80% -1.38%
Manistee1,12039.58%1,64658.16% 64 2.26% 2,830 14.23% 18.58%
Marquette3,18835.57%5,53061.70% 245 2.73% 8,963 18.30% 26.13%
Mason1,22340.54%1,74157.71% 53 1.76% 3,017 13.44% 17.17%
Mecosta1,17338.88%1,76858.60% 76 2.52% 3,017 ~11.16% 19.72%
Menominee83548.69%80546.94% 75 4.37% 1,715 9.04% -1.75%
Midland3,09739.81%4,56858.71% 115 1.48% 7,780 ~12.04% 18.90%
Missaukee40139.08%59157.60% 34 3.31% 1,026 9.66% 18.52%
Monroe6,71647.22%6,84248.11% 665 4.68% 14,223 12.31% 0.88%
Montcalm1,68136.81%2,76260.49% 123 2.69% 4,566 10.91% 23.68%
Montmorency39248.64%38347.52% 31 3.85% 806 10.23% -1.12%
Muskegon8,80744.51%10,45652.84% 524 2.65% 19,787 16.01% 8.33%
Newaygo1,29536.49%2,15560.72% 99 2.79% 3,549 10.11% 24.23%
Oakland92,30051.29%84,16346.77% 3,193 1.77% 179,656 19.40% -4.52%
Oceana79138.21%1,23759.76% 42 2.03% 2,070 10.86% 21.55%
Ogemaw86246.24%92649.68% 76 4.08% 1,864 11.48% 3.44%
Ontonagon32744.31%36249.05% 49 6.64% 738 ~13.03% 4.74%
Osceola67040.39%95357.44% 36 2.17% 1,659 ~9.71% 17.05%
Oscoda27344.75%31551.64% 22 3.61% 610 9.23% 6.89%
Otsego78637.95%1,22859.30% 57 2.75% 2,071 10.07% 21.35%
Ottawa7,68734.43%14,33364.20% 307 1.38% 22,327 11.47% 29.77%
Presque Isle59247.70%60648.83% 43 3.46% 1,241 11.59% 1.13%
Roscommon1,16347.28%1,18748.25% 110 4.47% 2,460 11.46% 0.97%
Saginaw12,49055.28%9,67642.83% 428 1.89% 22,594 15.03% -12.45%
St. Clair5,97340.46%8,34756.54% 444 3.01% 14,764 ~12.04% 16.08%
St. Joseph1,38237.62%2,21960.40% 73 1.99% 3,674 ~8.49% 22.78%
Sanilac1,16042.00%1,48553.77% 117 4.24% 2,762 9.53% 11.77%
Schoolcraft31245.75%34550.59% 25 3.67% 682 10.22% 4.84%
Shiawassee3,03139.35%4,45257.80% 219 2.84% 7,702 14.28% 18.45%
Tuscola1,98442.58%2,53254.35% 143 3.07% 4,659 11.52% 11.77%
Van Buren2,48439.69%3,65658.41% 119 1.90% 6,259 11.34% 18.72%
Washtenaw30,02243.69%38,06255.39% 632 0.92% 68,716 25.67% 11.70%
Wayne165,81960.09%105,48738.23% 4,650 1.69% 275,956 21.13% -21.86%
Wexford90932.91%1,79364.92% 60 2.17% 2,762 11.14% 32.01%
Total582,45248.24%599,72349.67% 25,222 2.09% 1,207,397 ~12.67% 1.43%

Results by congressional district

[edit]
District Sanders Clinton
1st 59.09% 38.44%
2nd 59.24% 38.80%
3rd 60.38% 37.92%
4th 57.48% 40.26%
5th 45.77% 52.05%
6th 57.03% 41.17%
7th 53.72% 43.53%
8th 56.00% 41.97%
9th 49.75% 47.47%
10th 52.32% 43.95%
11th 52.11% 45.95%
12th 53.09% 45.22%
13th 33.74% 64.92%
14th 32.10% 66.66%

Analysis

[edit]

Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the 2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between the state party and DNC.[73][74][75] Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory in Mississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich Midwestern Rust Belt states,[76] such as Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along with North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton was more clearly favored.[77][78]

Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56–42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated. Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71–28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women and African Americans, but Sanders's margins with independents and rural voters, mostly working class whites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised by trade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband,[25] were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such as Detroit and Flint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56–40, even though Clinton had hammered him on his 2009 vote against the auto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended upon manufacturing and the auto industry. Among unions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49–46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton.[26] Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans."[25]

Sanders thanked supporters after his surprise win, "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."[25]

Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

Alongside Wisconsin, Michigan was among the two "Blue Wall" states won by Bernie Sanders in the primary election that Donald Trump would ultimately flip in the general election.

References

[edit]
  1. "Election 2016 - Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary". realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved May 28, 2016.
  2. "Flint gets Democratic presidential debate on March 6". Detroit News. February 3, 2016. Retrieved February 3, 2016.
  3. Feldman, Josh. "Fox News Will Hold Democratic Town Hall Next Week; Only One Candidate Set to Appear". MSN. Archived from the original on March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  4. Official Primary results
  5. "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  6. "Clinton Opens Up Huge Lead in Michigan" (PDF).
  7. "MICHIGAN: TRUMP, CLINTON IN FRONT" (PDF).
  8. 1 2 "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
  9. "Clinton's lead on Sanders shrinks heading into Michigan Primary".
  10. "Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Hold Big Leads in Michigan: Poll".
  11. "TRUMP LEADS GOP FIELD IN MICHIGAN; DEMOCRATIC RACE CLOSE".
  12. "Clinton, Trump maintain large leads ahead of debates, primary".
  13. "Trump & Clinton Poised to Take Michigan" (PDF).
  14. "Clinton Leads Sanders by 34% February 23, 2016" (PDF).
  15. "ARG POll February 19–20, 2016".
  16. "Clinton Leads Sanders by 33%" (PDF). realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
  17. "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
  18. 1 2 "IMP/Target Insyght Poll: Clinton Dominates Dem Primary". insidemichiganpolitics.com. Retrieved February 8, 2016.
  19. "Hillary up 19 over Biden and Sanders". mrgmi.com. Retrieved September 16, 2015.
  20. "PPP MI" (PDF). publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  21. Suffolk
  22. The Green Papers
  23. "2016 Presidential Primary Results Part 1" (PDF). Michigan.gov. Retrieved July 20, 2026.
  24. "2016 Presidential Primary Results Part 2" (PDF). Michigan.gov. Retrieved July 20, 2026.
  25. 1 2 3 Lee, MJ; Zeleny, Jeff; Bash, Dana; Merica, Dan. "What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?". CNN. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
  26. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved September 25, 2016.